Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 032048
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

MSC007-089-032130-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070403T2130Z/
MADISON MS-ATTALA MS-
347 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR ATTALA AND MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTH OF SALLIS...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF DURANT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALLIS BY 410 PM CDT...
  KOSCIUSKO BY 430 PM CDT...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3282 8993 3280 8977 3292 8971 3312 8944
      3310 8975

$$

CME

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 032120
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

MSC007-032130-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070403T2130Z/
ATTALA MS-
420 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ATTALA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3281 8987 3280 8974 3288 8974 3288 8984

$$

MSC089-032130-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070403T2130Z/
MADISON MS-
420 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT 
FOR FAR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY...

AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MADISON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3281 8987 3280 8974 3288 8974 3288 8984

$$

CME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...LOW MORNING CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
BROUGHT THE LAST WARM DAY FOR THE ARKLAMISS UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CONVECTION IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MS. 18Z SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...LI STILL AROUND -6...AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ALMOST 1.5 INCHES THANKS TO THE CONTINUOUS SURGE
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A CAP WHICH MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOME THROUGH SUNSET.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT SUNSET THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING THROUGH THE DELTA REGION BY MIDNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DECIDED TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND WENT WITH
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH AND KEPT
MID 70S IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT MAY NOT MAKE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT. /28/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE COOL
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL PUT OUR
REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL WITH THE SHORT WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
GULF BEING CUT OFF. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 0.8 OF
AN INCH FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN DROP TO BELOW .30 INCH FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

HAVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO LOW POPS FOR THE PERIOD. WENT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN 925 TEMPS WILL DROP
FROM 1 TO 8 C BY FRIDAY AND WILL DIP TO AROUND -3C ON SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK UP TO 6 TO 8C ON TUESDAY
AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SO WITH
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREEING WITH THE COOL
PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MAINLY INTO THE 30S FOR
NIGHTLY LOWS THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR 30. THIS WILL BRING
ON SOME POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE BOUT OF
COOL WEATHER WILL BRING NIGHTLY LOWS DURING THE WEEKEND ABOUT 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WHICH WILL RISE TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES WERE GOING FOR THE MIDDLE 20S AT SOME
LOCATIONS...WHICH SEEMED A LITTLE TOO COOL. WITH THESE LIGHT WINDS
AND TEMPS EXPECT TO SEE SOME APRIL FROST IN THE AREA. WE WILL BEGIN
TO WARM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...PUTTING THE ARKLAMISS UNDER
SOUTH WINDS. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  70  43  67 /  81   9   7   3
MERIDIAN      59  73  42  67 /  59  11   8   4
VICKSBURG     59  69  41  65 /  83   8   6   3
HATTIESBURG   62  78  46  69 /  33  18   7   5
NATCHEZ       60  68  44  66 /  42  13   6   5
GREENVILLE    51  65  41  63 /  90   5   6   3
GREENWOOD     54  69  38  64 /  90   6   7   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041050-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
550 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DELTA REGION
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING TODAY ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY
NORTH OF A GRENADA TO HOLLANDALE MISSISSIPPI TO CROSSETT ARKANSAS
LINE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO CANTON TO PHILADELPHIA
MISSISSIPPI LINE AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. OUR UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND SHEAR TO CREATE THE PROPER
CONDITIONS FOR THESE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER... STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OTHERWISE...IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY MORNING...APRIL 10TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.