Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 011401
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

LAC067-123-011515-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070301T1515Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
801 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CST
FOR WEST CARROLL AND MOREHOUSE PARISHES...

AT 801 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR OAK RIDGE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BASTROP...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PIONEER...FOREST...OAK GROVE AND KILBOURNE

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3272 9191 3255 9188 3267 9163 3269 9139
      3302 9127 3293 9162

$$

BANNAN

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 011420
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
820 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

LAC067-011430-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070301T1515Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-
820 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MOREHOUSE PARISH IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE PARISH.

LAT...LON 3288 9154 3269 9162 3269 9139 3302 9127

$$

LAC123-011515-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070301T1515Z/
WEST CARROLL LA-
820 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CST
FOR WEST CARROLL PARISH...

AT 820 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FOREST...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTH OF WILMOT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OAK
GROVE AND KILBOURNE

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3288 9154 3269 9162 3269 9139 3302 9127

$$

BANNAN

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 011502
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
903 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

LAC123-011513-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070301T1515Z/
WEST CARROLL LA-
903 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CARROLL PARISH IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3288 9154 3269 9162 3269 9139 3302 9127

$$

CAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVERALL...LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER
SCENARIO...AND MARCH LOOKS TO COME IN LIKE A LION FOR OUR AREA.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF 60
DEGREE DEW POINTS EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN TO JUST SOUTH
OF GREENVILLE. STRENGTHENING WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOP OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR CWA WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR NORTH. OUR CWA HAS BEEN CAPPED AS SEEN ON THE 06Z THU JAN
SOUNDING...BUT THIS CAP IS WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING.

A QUICK-EVOLVING SCENARIO IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE OUR WAY. AN INTENSE
MID/UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUNCH EAST OVER
OUR CWA. GULF RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
OUR CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION OVER OUR CWA
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
OUTBREAK...GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL...
INCLUDING A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER EASTERN MS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE
REMAINDER OF OUR CWA IS IN A MODERATE RISK. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WX
WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY-LINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOST ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE AREA A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AS STRONG GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO GRENADA. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...BECOMES RATHER QUIET
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWATS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BECOMING FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING A FRONT AND OUR NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO POPS
WERE TO LOWER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS MAXING OUT AT 0.5 INCH.

A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO SEE NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FOLLOWED RATHER
CLOSE TO GUI FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM.  THE MAIN CHANGES
MADE WERE TO GIVE A SLIGHTLY BIGGER DIURNAL DIFFERENCE AT THE END OF
THE WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY
OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL AFFECT TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT GLH/GWO IN THE MORNING AND IN
THE AFTERNOON AT GTR/JAN/MEI/HBG. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME AFTER
00Z FRI AT MOST SITES. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  42  70  38 /  79  12   7   7
MERIDIAN      75  41  70  39 /  91  35   8   7
VICKSBURG     71  42  70  38 /  74  10   7   6
HATTIESBURG   76  44  73  39 /  92  29   8   9
NATCHEZ       72  42  71  38 /  74  10   7   6
GREENVILLE    71  42  66  36 /  74   9   6   6
GREENWOOD     71  41  66  36 /  79  11   6   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>036-040>042-047.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-025.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22
LONG TERM: 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0604 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
021204-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0604 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WHOLE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GRENADA TO MERIDIAN LINE...BUT THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE VIOLENT
WEATHER.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME
FOCUSED OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
COME TO AN END BEFORE SUNSET.

PERSONS ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD
TORNADO WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO ABOVE 25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY IN
THE DELTA AND ABOVE 20 MPH ELSEWHERE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT TODAY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A VICKSBURG TO GRENADA
LINE...WHERE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 20 MPH AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED TODAY. AFTER TODAY...ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011800-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
630 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WHOLE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA.

THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
TENNIS BALLS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GRENADA TO MERIDIAN LINE...BUT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE VIOLENT WEATHER.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL 2 PM CST. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERE WEATHER THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL END IN THOSE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL BECOME
FOCUSED OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING
TO AN END BEFORE SUNSET.

AEG/MME