Severe Thunderstorm Warning 456, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CST THU DEC 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS. SECOND CLOUD DECK THAT IS ALREADY
LIFTING INTO SRN AND WRN ZONES WILL STEM COOLING. WILL SEE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT SRN AREAS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TREND OF LIFTING THE WARM FRONT WELL
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE AND CONFIRMS THE EARLIER MODEL
FORECASTS OF AN INTENSE 850 MB JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM CST THU DEC 27 2007  MODELS ALL FORECAST A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN RAPIDLY NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN
OCCURRING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO HELP FUEL AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE SINCE
THE SURFACE AIR WILL STILL BE COOL. THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW TONIGHT
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE A SURFACE-BASED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SUPERCELL
STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES. ALSO... A DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL DEVELOP
AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EASTWARD. THE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH AN INITIAL FALL ESPECIALLY
WHERE SKIES CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT EXPECT
RISING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE
DELTA REGION TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR HATTIESBURG.

IN THE LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE A FEW
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AND THE EURO ACTUALLY PUSHES THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH
THAN THE GFS. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER...BUT FOR THE MOST PART HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST
RISK. THE GFS IS INDICATING A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN FOR AREAS
EXTENDING FROM NATCHEZ TO MERIDIAN. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND THE MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT ON A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

RAISED POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND CUT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. STUCK PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...BUT DID CUT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/EURO ARE
INDICATING H850 TEMPS RANGING FROM -10 TO -7 ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY WILL EQUATE TO
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVEN COLDER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...BUT WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW./15/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAST AND
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AMPLIFIED...AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A ROUND OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL OVER SE PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STAY SE OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS EVENT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO GET ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY IN ANY CASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SFC PRESSURES LOWER.

BY EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER RESULTING IN A
MAJOR ERN CONUS TROUGH AND A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF VERY CHILLY AIR.
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SEND THE FIRST DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST ONE. RECENT RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS IN ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TEND TO STAY E OF THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE +PNA PATTERN. STILL...MEX
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS OVER NC/NE PORTIONS OF
MS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATE
NORMAL FOR A DAY 6/7 PERIOD. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WILL SEE CLOUD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER NRN ZONES FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE NEXT CLOUD DECK REDEVELOPS FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH. CLOUD BASES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT MVFR FROM
15-30K. PATCHES OF IFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO BRIEF
CLEARING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN ZONES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...STARTING FROM THE WEST
WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281100-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
205 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MANY OF THE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT TIMES WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.

EC