Severe Thunderstorm Warning 450, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1250 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...BAND OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AR/WESTERN LA/SE
TX HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR. AM GUESSING THAT THE RUC MAY
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
GIVEN THE STEADY INTENSIFICATION...MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM/GFS PROBABLY
MORE REASONABLE. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT THAT CONTINUED STRONG
THERMAL/MOIST ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
STORMS GOING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
NE LA AND WESTERN MS...AND INSOLATION SHOULD WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG CONVECTIVE WINDS MAKING IT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECT THAT THE GREATEST RISK OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM...AND THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR THIS AREA...AND A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY COME
OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THIS AREA.

THANKS AGAIN TO SPC FOR ADDITIONAL COORDINATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT AT LEAST BKN LOW CLOUDS AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS.
OCCASIONAL SCT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR THOUGH AS LARGE BREAKS
CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE IN WRN MS. WILL TIME SHRA/TSRA THREAT IN TAFS
BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF CONVECTIVE LINE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AFTER FROPA...BUT EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BY SUN AM.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-
     019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231345-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
200 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA COULD BE AFFECTED...THE REGION WITH
THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE WEST OF INTERSTATE
55 FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM...AND THROUGH
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO
COULD ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXIST.

AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
MAY STILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...BUT THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH. ALL OF THE STORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WEST AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY DECEMBER 29TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

08

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

LAZ015-016-023-025-222220-
RICHLAND LA-TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-MADISON LA-
349 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER FRANKLIN PARISH...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND
DIME SIZED HAIL WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF WINNSBORO AT 349 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

PEOPLE IN FRANKLIN...MADISON...RICHLAND AND TENSAS
PARISHES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF WINNSBORO...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 8
PM CST.

AEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

LAZ025-026-MSZ060-222235-
TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-ADAMS MS-
406 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER FROGMORE AT 406 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN ADAMS...CONCORDIA AND TENSAS PARISHES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF FERRIDAY...NATCHEZ AND VIDALIA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

AEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

LAZ009-016-MSZ040-222230-
EAST CARROLL LA-ISSAQUENA MS-MADISON LA-
410 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND
DIME SIZED HAIL WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TENDAL AT 410 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EAST CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND MADISON PARISHES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF TRANSYLVANIA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 8 PM.

AEG