Severe Thunderstorm Warning 393, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ANTICIPATED...
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MAX
HEATING TO GO...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS HEATING
DECREASES.  A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER INTO MID EVENING AS A RESULT
OF WANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WAY BY 02Z.

OTHER THAN A DEGREE TWEAK HERE AND THERE...I STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN MOST PLACES.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD
BE SOME LINGERING CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER STORMS WHICH COULD AID
IN KEEPING LOWS UP A BIT IN MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  ITS IN
THESE AREAS WHERE I MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS.

ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES CLIMB BACK UP
AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK.

THIS INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO DAYTIME HEATING...LOWERING
HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH...SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY.  IN ADDITION...A TUTT LOW...
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...IS FORECASTED BY
THE GFS TO NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF ON SATURDAY.  IF THIS PANS OUT...IT COULD ALSO AID IN
ENHANCING MOISTURE FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD HELP WITH
CONVECTION INITIATION.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
ONGOING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.  WITH 825 MB PROGGED
BETWEEN 19-21C...HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE MID
90S...WITH A FEW LOCATION IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY....THE PATTERN SEEMS TO CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE AREA LOOKING COOLER AND WETTER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF FRONTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...MOST OF THE
RAIN SEEMS TO FALL SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20...THERE WAS SOME
RELIEF TO THE HOT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID
AND LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 18.
MOISTURE INCREASES...DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 70S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...
ESPECIALLY FROM WED ON. DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
TEMPS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE CWA...CURRENT
ANALYSIS STILL HAS IT OVER THE MIDWEST AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEEMS TO STAY THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO GENERATE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY A STATIONARY FROM FRONT SEEMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES SEEM TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND HELP TO SUPPORT RAIN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES...SO THE CHANCE OF
RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...MAYBE ISOLATED ALONG 20 THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID AND LOWER
90S. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...I.E
KJAN...KGTR...KMEI...AND KHBG.  MVFR...TO LOCALLY IFR...CONDITIONS
COULD BE BRIEFLY OBSERVED AT SITES WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS.  ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION GONE BY 02Z.  AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING FOG FORM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  95  72  96 /  24  21  33  23
MERIDIAN      72  95  71  95 /  34  34  44  24
VICKSBURG     73  96  73  96 /  15  14  22  16
HATTIESBURG   73  94  73  94 /  34  38  24  33
NATCHEZ       73  93  72  92 /  15  22  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  97  72  98 /  14  14  18   8
GREENWOOD     72  96  72  97 /  22  18  24   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
222 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
222 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COMBINING WITH A MOISTENING AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SOME
OF THESE STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS.  AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A STARKVILLE TO FOREST TO
MONTICELLO LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AUGUST 30TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

MSZ049-242330-
RANKIN MS-
543 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FANNIN AT 543 PM CDT.
THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN RANKIN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BRANDON AND
PEARL...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
556 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

MSZ050-242340-
SCOTT MS-
556 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEAST SCOTT COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOREST AT 556 PM CDT.
THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SCOTT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF FOREST...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

MSZ056-057-250030-
SMITH MS-JASPER MS-
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST JASPER AND SOUTHEAST SMITH
COUNTIES...

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WERE LOCATED NEAR BAY SPRINGS AT 647 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

PEOPLE IN JASPER AND SMITH COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
STRINGER...SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
654 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-250040-
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-NOXUBEE MS-WINSTON MS-
654 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE...

SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
WERE LOCATED OVER CLAY...OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON...AND WESTERN NOXUBEE
COUNTIES AT 654 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...LOWNDES...NOXUBEE...OKTIBBEHA AND WINSTON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF STARKVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

MSZ037-044-045-250100-
LEAKE MS-NESHOBA MS-ATTALA MS-
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER ATTALA, LEAKE AND NESHOBA COUNTIES...

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF
KOSCIUSKO TO PHILADELPHIA AT 701 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN ATTALA...LEAKE AND NESHOBA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF EDINBURG...KOSCIUSKO AND PHILADELPHIA...SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

BYB