Severe Thunderstorm Warning 389, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1022 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

.UPDATE...LEFT OVER CLOUD DEBRIS REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN MS
THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOW THE HEATING PROCESS A BIT. A VERY WEAK
MCV APPEARS TO BE NEAR KLUL MOVING WSW AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE AXIS
ALONG AND W OF I-59 ALSO SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY SETUP. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG INSOLATION UNDERWAY
OVER THE DELTA AND EWD ALONG HIGHWAY 82 AND THESE LOCATIONS ARE WHERE
MODELS MAXIMIZE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH ANYWHERE FROM 2400J/KG
MLCAPES TO NEARLY 4500J/KG SBCAPES(EVEN 6700J/KG MUCAPES BY GFS)
ALONG WITH 6C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ K INDEXES. HAVE DECIDED
TO BOOST AFTERNOON POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
LIKELY IN MUCH RICHER 2+ INCH PWAT AIRMASS.

WET MICROBURST CHECKLISTS SHOWING SLIGHT TO RISK CATEGORIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND E OF HIGHWAY 49 FROM THE DELTA TO SERN MS SO A FEW SEVERE
TSRA WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SPC MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK AS WELL. UPDATED GRAPHICS/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND ZONE
PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN THE TN VALLEY MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD
AGAIN BE A LITTLE ACTIVE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHING WWD
ACROSS AT LEAST CENTRAL AND SRN MS. BOTH 06Z GFS AND 00Z 4.5KM WRF
SHOWING PRECIPITATION IN THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME WITH ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH POTENTIALS. WILL BE EVALUATING THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS UNTIL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS FROM 17-02Z. YOU CAN EXPECT LOCAL IFR
IN THE SHRA/TSRA WITH POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS OF 50-60KTS IN
MICROBURSTS...MAINLY IN THE NRN/CENTRAL ZONES. LATER TONIGHT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST IN LIGHT FOG FROM 08-13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  75  94  72 /  40  46  19  17
MERIDIAN      91  73  95  70 /  41  50  11  15
VICKSBURG     94  74  94  71 /  19  36  29  18
HATTIESBURG   92  75  92  72 /  39  43  18  22
NATCHEZ       94  74  90  71 /  16  26  36  21
GREENVILLE    96  75  96  72 /  40  21  26  17
GREENWOOD     96  74  96  72 /  52  24  18  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
192000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING OVER SECTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO FOREST TO
LAUREL. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD WILL HELP IN THE PRODUCTION OF
THE EARLY EVENING STORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ALLOWING THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO
60 MPH UNTIL AROUND 10 PM.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE DISTURBANCE PLODS
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

MSZ029-030-181935-
CLAY MS-WEBSTER MS-
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NATCHEZ TRACE
   PARKWAY NEAR MANTEE MOVING WEST...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED ON THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY FROM
ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF CUMBERLAND TO MANTEE AT 148 PM CDT...
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH 230 PM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CLAY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
MONTPELIER...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

MSZ033-182030-
OKTIBBEHA MS-
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LONGVIEW AT 243 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. OTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OKTIBBEHA COUNTY. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

EEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
327 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

MSZ026>028-182110-
GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
327 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CARROLL...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND GRENADA COUNTIES.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER SWEATMAN AT 327 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO GRENADA
COUNTY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...GRENADA AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF GRENADA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MRM