Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ARKLAMISS FROM AN
MCS OVER ARKANSAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS. THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. AREA RADARS WERE NOTING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

FOR THE SHORT TERM IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY AND SOME FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL SPELL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THE SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE INDICES...PWATS WILL BE 1.8 TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...LIFTED INDEXES -6 TO -8...500 MB WINDS 15 TO 30
KNOTS...850 MB WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE WEAK AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS... AND K
INDEX AROUND 35. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. MAV POPS LOOKED TO
BE TOO LOW FOR TONIGHT...SO WENT CLOSER TO HIGHER NAM POPS. FOR
SATURDAY THE MAV LOOKED A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER
POPS. AS FAR AS TEMPS IS CONCERN MADE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH THE
RAIN  THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED TO BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WENT
CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90./17/

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
UNDER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN WORDING IN HWO FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION.

500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...SHIFTING THE
UPPER TROUGH WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL FALL
UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THUS
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A
WARMING TREND AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE
CWA.

I STUCK WITH GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CAME
IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. GIVEN CLOUD COVER REMAINING FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH RECENTLY SATURATED SOILS...I
DONT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL THAT LOW. I RAISED LOWS AROUND 1-2 DEGREES
FOR MOST PLACES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  88  70  85 /  40  64  50  54
MERIDIAN      70  88  68  86 /  39  60  45  44
VICKSBURG     70  88  70  86 /  46  61  55  59
HATTIESBURG   72  87  69  86 /  40  57  40  49
NATCHEZ       71  86  70  83 /  47  61  60  66
GREENVILLE    71  90  69  86 /  62  63  44  42
GREENWOOD     70  88  69  86 /  51  63  42  42

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
142015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY. THESE DISTURBANCES...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY...RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME WIND SHEAR DYNAMICS...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS OR
STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF PREVIOUS DAYS. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VERY
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE. AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY. THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
MAY OCCUR.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY JULY 20TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
326 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWTON                  32.32N 89.16W
07/12/2007                   NEWTON             MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS POWERLINES AROUND THE
            NEWTON AREA.

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
327 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWTON                  32.32N 89.16W
07/12/2007                   NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON A TRAILER.

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTICELLO              31.55N 90.11W
07/12/2007                   LAWRENCE           MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON POWERLINES AROUND THE
            MONTICELLO AREA.

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRENTISS                31.60N 89.87W
07/12/2007                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN ON POWERLINES AROUND THE
            PRENTISS AREA.

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SYLVARENA               32.01N 89.38W
07/12/2007                   SMITH              MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN ON POWERLINES AROUND THE
            SYLVARENA AREA.

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 SE FOREST            32.22N 89.32W
07/12/2007                   SMITH              MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN ON POWERLINES AROUND THE
            SOUTHEAST CORNER OF SCOTT COUNTY.

&&

BRYANT