Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER WRN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL
ALSO SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ERN AREAS BUT CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS INTO ERN MS AS STRONGER CONVECTION FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH
INTENSITY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE STALLED
UPPER TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM. THESE WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME
AND MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW BUT
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS AN AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION. WILL
FOLLOW MOS GUIDANCE AND LEAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT
SOLUTION WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAIN FORCING. HAVE INCREASED
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER NRN ZONES FOR TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES OVER
SRN ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE A S/W CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT MOISTURE (PWATS
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2.0 INCHES) AND INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDICES
BETWEEN -4 AND -6) OVER THE AREA TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...GIVING
WAY TO A QUIET NIGHT.  FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT I STUCK RATHER CLOSE TO GUI WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVES AND
MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED S/W
WILL BEGIN TO PASS THROUGH THE CWFA.  THIS WILL GIVE YET AGAIN
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. PWATS WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN 2.0-2.3 INCHES AND
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 TO -6.  AGAIN STUCK RATHER CLOSE TO GUI FOR
POPS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED.  THIS IS AGAIN
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RELATED TO THIS S/W.  TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...TO
THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.  LOWS AGAIN LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW A BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA.  THE TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL NOT QUITE
CERTAIN.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS IT IN A LITTLE FASTER. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT IT WILL STALL OVER THE CWFA BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WASHING OUT. HAVE STUCK WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING GIVEN BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT AND AGREES
BETTER WITH THE ECMWF. THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. 500 MB FLOW LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 20-35KTS.  MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS
STILL AROUND 2.1-2.3 INCHES. INSTABILITY LOOKS OKAY WITH ML CAPES
RANGING FROM 1800-2800 J/KG ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE LESS
ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY OVER THE BRIEF STRONG WORDING IN
THE HWO FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...DID NOT
MAKE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.  LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...SO MAINTAINED
WITH GOING POPS.  TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS...AND LOW IN THE LOWER 70S. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONALLY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS AND THIS
WILL CLEAR BY SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN DURING THE MORNING OVER SWRN ZONES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  90  73  92 /  68  56  23  36
MERIDIAN      71  90  71  92 /  49  53  23  37
VICKSBURG     72  90  73  91 /  56  55  29  41
HATTIESBURG   73  91  73  92 /  59  39  16  37
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  92 /  50  43  20  36
GREENVILLE    73  88  72  89 /  60  60  44  52
GREENWOOD     72  88  73  90 /  50  60  46  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
102015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
306 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES LIFTS AROUND
THE STALLED UPPER LOW JUST UPSTREAM. THE STRONGEST STORMS CAN
GENERALLY BE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 49. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH. HOWEVER...HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PONDING WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT DURING
THE DAY HAS BEEN FAST ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RISK OF FLOODING
RAINFALL BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SLOWER CELL
MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY WHEN
YET ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS. THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...THEN AGAIN SOMETIME DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             4 N ROSE HILL           32.20N 88.99W
07/09/2007  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED IN THE FELLOWSHIP COMMUNITY.

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
509 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

MSZ042-043-092250-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
509 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BENTON AT 509 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN YAZOO AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.  MOVE TO SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

AEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

MSZ036-042-092315-
HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
535 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COXBURG...OR 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
YAZOO CITY...AT 535 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
THORNTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.  MOVE TO SHELTER IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
546 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAMBURG                 33.23N 91.80W
07/09/2007                   ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMBER OF ROADWAYS FLOODED ACROSS ASHLEY COUNTY. ALSO HAD
            PEA SIZED HAIL AS STORMS MOVED THROUGH.

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

LAZ007>009-015-100110-
MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-RICHLAND LA-
710 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF DARNELL AT 710 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EAST CARROLL...MOREHOUSE...RICHLAND AND WEST CARROLL
PARISHES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF LAKE PROVIDENCE AND
TRANSYLVANIA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

AEG

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