Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 050300
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

LAC067-050309-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-070605T0315Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-
959 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MOREHOUSE PARISH IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3280 9153 3281 9153 3296 9144 3294 9131
      3288 9130 3287 9134 3277 9134 3274 9135
      3274 9141

$$

LAC123-050315-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-070605T0315Z/
WEST CARROLL LA-
959 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR WEST CARROLL PARISH...

AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK 
GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3280 9153 3281 9153 3296 9144 3294 9131
      3288 9130 3287 9134 3277 9134 3274 9135
      3274 9141

$$

OLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT IS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE CWFA.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LA AND MS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET.  EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE CWFA WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.  THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO POPS FROM GUI WERE TO BUMP UP FOR
ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS STALLED.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THIS
REGION WITH PWATS OF AN INCH OR MORE FOR THIS AREA. BUT OVERALL...ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA WILL STAY
DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

HAD NO PROBLEMS WITH MAV LOW TEMPERATURES. THESE LOOKED REASONABLE
WITH A TREND OF MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...SINCE THE
SOUTH IS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER.  SO I ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT A FEW SELECTED SITES.  I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT A FEW SITES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUESDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BELIEVE WE
SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. /14/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE
THINKING WITH THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST...WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS DOES STILL HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
BLOWS UP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/SW ALABAMA. THE ECMWF
AND NAM DO NOT HAVE SUCH A FEATURE SO WL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT FOR
NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /22/

BY WED...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SAT BEFORE TOPPING OUT NEAR
592-593 DM. FOR WED-THU...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE N PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
AND VERY DEEP SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD LIKELY
RESULTING A SIG SVR EVENT ACROSS THAT REGION. WE WILL REMAIN DRY AS
STRONG CAP DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA UNDER INCREASING S/SW FLOW. THE
MAIN IMPACT OVER OUR AREA WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS WED-THU. THAT
WILL BE OUR ONLY RELIEF TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
YR. TO TOP THAT OFF...70 DEGREE SFC DEWPTS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE
WHICH WILL MAKE THINGS QUITE HUMID WITH 90-95 DEGREE HEAT. AS I
MENTIONED ABOVE...RISING HEIGHTS WED-THU ALONG WITH A BUILDING CAP
WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. I WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS
THE SE ON THU AFTERNOON AS SOME SEA BREEZE STUFF MAY MAKE IT INLAND
TO NEAR HBG. GUID IS SUGGESTING 30% POPS...BUT I NOT BUYING IT TO
MUCH AND WILL CUT TO 20%.

FOR FRI-SAT...RIDGE WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. GUID IS OFFERING
MAINLY 10% POPS WITH 20% MIXED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BY THIS TIME...
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REALLY DECREASE AND WE WILL LOOSE ANY
MOISTURE ADV WE PREV HAD. FOR SUN-MON...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES W A BIT AND HEIGHTS LOWER A FEW DM. SOME GUID ARE
SUGGESTING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MAY MOVE IN ALONG WITH INCREASE
850MB MOISTURE FROM THE E. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON AS RIDGE CENTERS
MOVE WEST. A COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THIS AND I HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY E HALF TO 30-40% FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SET UP AS IT USUALLY
FAVORS SVR STORMS. TOO FAR OUT THAT THIS POINT TO MENTION IN HWO...
BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS FOR TEMPS...925-850 TEMPS GET QUITE WARM DURING THE EXTENDED...
ROUGHLY 23-25C AT 925MB AND 18-20C AT 850MB. ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ON THOSE VALUES...THIS USUALLY RESULTS IN 5
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. SO WE SHOULD EXPECT 91-95 DEGREES
EACH DAY. WE COULD SEE WARMER VALUES DO TO OUR DRY SOIL CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THE WARMEST LOOK TO BE
THU-FRI MORNINGS AS THE ARE WILL STILL HAVE 70 DEGREE SFC DEWPTS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH SOME SFC WINDS STAYING UP DURING THE NIGHT. GUID
WAS OFFERING LOWER/MID 70S AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE. BY THE
WEEKEND...SFC WINDS DIE DOWN AND THE MODEL HINTS AT SOME SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPTS MOVING IN FROM THE SE/E. GUID HAS A MIX OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HAVE FOLLOWED. THE ONLY PLACE I DID CUT WAS TVR WHICH
HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO GET 3-4 DEGREES COOLER WHEN WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/CALM. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT SITES IN THE
SOUTH...MAINLY OVER HBG.  AFFECTS WILL BE BRIEF...AND ANY AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE...CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  89  64  92 /  10  10   7   6
MERIDIAN      64  89  64  92 /  10  10   7   5
VICKSBURG     65  91  66  92 /  10   8   7   7
HATTIESBURG   68  91  67  91 /  16  16   9  10
NATCHEZ       66  88  66  91 /  16  15   6  11
GREENVILLE    66  89  63  93 /  10   3   5   5
GREENWOOD     65  90  65  91 /  10   4   5   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 14
LONG TERM: 22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
227 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. IN
THIS AREA...STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 7 TO 8 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
515 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

MSZ018-042315-
BOLIVAR MS-
515 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO BOLIVAR COUNTY...A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...GUSTY WIND TO 40
MILES AN HOUR AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS LOCATED 14
MILES WEST OF ROSEDALE AT 515 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLEVELAND...
ROSEDALE...SHAW AND SHELBY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

OLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
515 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

MSZ018-042315-
BOLIVAR MS-
515 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO BOLIVAR COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MILES AN HOUR AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS
LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF ROSEDALE AT 515 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLEVELAND...
ROSEDALE...SHAW AND SHELBY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

OLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
702 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

ARZ074-075-050030-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-
702 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ASHLEY AND
CHICOT COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF PARKDALE AT 702
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ASHLEY AND CHICOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
EUDORA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB