Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...A GOOD BIT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE
ARKLAMISS REGION.  CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.  CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF
TO OUR EAST...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER SLY TO SELY FLOW.  THIS HAS
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA...MAINLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON...AND HAS BROUGHT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.  THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
THROUGH NW AR AND INTO NE TX.

EXPECT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO BEGIN TO DIE DOWN BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 5 PM...LEAVING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  ONCE THIS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DIES DOWN A BIT...EXPECT THE CWFA TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT
QUIET PERIOD AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CONCERNED.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SINCE THESE STORMS HAVE A GOOD
BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE.

EXPECT THAT THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE CWFA BY MIDNIGHT.  AS THE
FRONT ACTUALLY APPROACHES THE CWFA DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THE DELTA REGION MAY BE ABLE TO SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS.  BUT OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY THE
FRONT TO GET TOO STRONG/SEVERE AGAIN UNTIL AROUND LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PUT THE FRONT IN A POSITION
TO MAINLY BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  AM NOT EXPECTING AS HIGH A
POSSIBILITY FOR THESE STORMS TO GET TOO STRONG ON WEDNESDAY AS WE
HAVE SEEN/WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON.  FIRST OF ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO GET UP AS HIGH AS THEY HAVE TODAY.  THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES GETTING TO ONLY 800-1200
J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX GETTING TO AROUND -4 TO -5. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
END OVER THE CWFA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

THE HAZE THAT THE ARKLAMISS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THE SELY TO ELY FLOW COMING OFF OF
THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THIS HAZE UNTIL
THE FRONT CHANGES THE FLOW TO BRING IN CLEANER AIR.  THE GOOD NEWS
WITH THIS HAZE IS THAT IT HAS ONLY DROPPED VISIBILITIES THE PAST 12
TO 24 HOURS TO ABOUT 5-6 SM.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA LOOKS RATHER QUIET.  CLOUD COVER
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO CLEAR ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING A COOL DOWN WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE AREA.  OVERALL...DID NOT
NEED TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO GUI FOR THE SHORT TERM. /14/

THURSDAY THOUGH NEXT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS INVADING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP PUT AN END TO...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...THE EARLY
SUMMER ONSLAUGHT THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE SETS UP TO THE WEST
AND A SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE CENTER SETS
UP OVER THE MIDWEST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY. PW VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UNDER
THE RIDGE. WINDS FROM 850 DOWN STAY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY PROPAGATING DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AROUND SATURDAY...STILL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACTIVITY
IN THE CWA. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TS/SH CAN NOT RULED OUT FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OUTFLOW CAN GET
GOING. SUNDAY/MONDAY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE SURFACE HIGH
AND UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SEEMS
TO BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. IT LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWING THROUGH THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPS...KEPT WITH A SIMILAR TREND AND RAISED VALUES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY. LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL VALUES. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE
FOR EVERYTHING ELSE. WITH THE AREA BASICALLY DRY AFTER WEDNESDAY...NO
NEED TO MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /7/

&&

.AVIATION...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE PERIODS OF MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER THE ARKLAMISS.  FORTUNATELY THE HAZE HAS NOT
CAUSED TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH VSBYS FOR MOST SITES REMAINING
BETWEEN 5-6SM. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
GWO...GLH...AND JAN.  THIS COULD GIVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN...GIVING MORE
ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AFTER
00Z.  AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PICK BACK
UP AROUND MIDNIGHT...AFFECTING GWO AND GLH BETWEEN 07-10Z AND THEN
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN
19Z-22Z ON WEDNESDAY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY
CAUSE A DROP IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES BRIEFLY. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  80  55  79 /  50  48   8   0
MERIDIAN      62  81  54  79 /  30  56  11   0
VICKSBURG     66  79  54  79 /  58  39   7   0
HATTIESBURG   66  82  58  80 /  20  63  13   0
NATCHEZ       67  79  53  77 /  37  46   8   0
GREENVILLE    63  76  54  78 /  67  22   3   0
GREENWOOD     64  76  52  78 /  66  31   5   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 14
LONG TERM: 19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161948-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE DELTA REGION...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND WEST OF A
GREENWOOD TO HOLLY BLUFF MISSISSIPPI TO SAINT JOSEPH LOUISIANA
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM INTO A LINE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  THIS IS WHERE GREATER
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP
BEING VERY LIGHT...THEN A GREATER FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL MONTHS OF BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW 35 PERCENT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
15 MPH THURSDAY...A GREATER RISK FOR WILDFIRES WOULD RESULT. BE
SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FIRE DANGER ASSESSMENT.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE DELTA
REGION...OTHERWISE IT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY MAY
22ND.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     HAIL             4 S LAKE VILLAGE        33.27N 91.28W
05/15/2007  E1.00 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER AND DIME HAIL REPORTED ALONG HWY 82.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
118 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             BASTROP                 32.77N 91.91W
05/15/2007  E0.88 INCH       MOREHOUSE          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER IS OUT IN MUCH OF DOWNTOWN BASTROP ALSO.

&&

AG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     HAIL             SHAW                    33.60N 90.77W
05/15/2007  E0.88 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ON SANDPIT ROAD.

&&

AG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

LAZ025-152030-
TENSAS-
224 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COOTER POINT...

AT 220 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM COOTER POINT
TO NEWLIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS ACROSS TENSAS PARISH. PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN THE AREA SHOULD MOVE TO SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROWVILLE               32.24N 91.59W
05/15/2007                   FRANKLIN           LA   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

AG