Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
BURNING OFF NICELY. THIS HAS LEFT MUCH OF MS COUNTIES UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH CUMULUS STREETS ELSEWHERE THAT WILL LIKELY THIN A GREAT
DEAL THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF FOG AND INCLUDE REVISED EXPECTATION OF CLOUD COVER.

EXAMINING MORNING JAN SOUNDING AND LATEST MODEL INFO SUGGESTS AN
AFTERNOON BORDERING ON HOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP TO LIMIT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF MS WITH CU OTHERWISE NOT AS THICK AS
YESTERDAY. THUS...INCREASED INSOLATION WILL BE IN TANDEM WITH
GREATER WARMING POTENTIAL DUE TO HIGHER TEMPS OFF THE GROUND. LOOKS
LIKE ALMOST ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS 90S A
PRETTY GOOD BET ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. FORECAST
HIGHS BUMPED UP 1 TO 3 DEGREES TO MATCH EXPECTATIONS. LOOKING AT
RECORDS...IF THINGS WORK OUT AS PLANNED WE MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF
DAILY MARKS AT GWO AND TVR.

AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT
BAY THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ALMOST ALL AREAS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE ACROSS MY NORTHEAST WHERE LESS CAPPING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE AND A BACK-DOOR SHORT WAVE/FRONT COMBO WILL NEAR BEFORE DARK.
I AM EXPECTING THIS TO FIRE UP SOME QUASI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS AL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO SWEEP
SOUTHWEST INTO MY REGION THIS EVENING. THIS PUTS A LARGER PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS AT RISK FOR SOME RAIN LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHAT CAN GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON IN AL. AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON IT. FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE LATEST THINKING AT THIS
POINT. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOULD SEE ALL VFR CONDITIONS WITH RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TODAY. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE LESS THICK THAN YESTERDAY WITH MUCH
HIGHER BASES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY ONE
AREA. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT ANY CONCERNS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /BB/

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTER TERM...UPPER RIDING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS IN THE SHORT TERM. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...ONE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER ERN ZONES
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LIFTING INTO SWRN ZONES MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS PER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO TRACK OF WEAK WAVES OVER
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK A DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION MONDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S OVER ERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID MONDAY.

LONGER TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR ON MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE EAST COAST. STRONG RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO ARKANSAS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW/TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THERE WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO POP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT
BELOW GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SURFACE
RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
RAISED TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...BUT OTHER THAN THAT STUCK WITH./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  64  78  55 /   5  17  11   3
MERIDIAN      91  61  77  49 /  12  27   7   2
VICKSBURG     92  68  81  58 /   5  15  12   2
HATTIESBURG   91  65  81  52 /   5  21  11   0
NATCHEZ       90  66  80  59 /   5  14  19   2
GREENVILLE    90  66  81  58 /   6  13  10   3
GREENWOOD     91  65  80  53 /   9  14   8   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50

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