Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX WX SITUATION TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING. ACTIVE
WX GOT OFF TO AN EARLY START WITH THE LINE THAT MOVED ACROSS NE LA
AND S AR. GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPED...WITH SOME LIKELY ASSISTANCE
FROM DRY AIR ALOFT...AND BECAME AN EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCER. THIS
COLD POOL HAS NOW ACCELERATED WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
INTO A STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH A GOOD BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. THE COLD POOL IS NOT QUITE SHALLOW AND SHOWING SIGNS OF
STALLING OUT. THIS FITS THE SCENARIO WELL AS THE MAIN S/W TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND OUR UPPER LOW IS STILL ACROSS S TX. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AND SPREAD OUR WAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ITS EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS S/SE TX WHERE A
LINE OF STORMS ARE ONGOING. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
HEIGHTS FALLS WITH THIS APPROACHING S/W WILL ALLOW THE ATMS TO
RESPOND AND GEAR BACK UP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE STRONG LIFT. THAT DRY/CAPPING LAYER IS QUITE
ROBUST WITH REALLY NO TAP OF QUALITY MOISTURE TO MOVE N OUT OF THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE BEST MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW GULF AND SW LA.
THIS AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO OUR SW CWA WITH SOME BETTER
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE S HALF LATER IN THE NIGHT. BASICALLY IT
WILL BOIL DOWN TO THIS...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. THE AREA THAT COULD SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE SW QUAD OF THE CWA. A LINE OF STORMS SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISK. SOME HAIL AND
ISO TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A LESSER RISK.

TIMING IS TOUGH...BUT THE INITIAL SVR RISK WILL BE ALONG THE
STALLING SFC BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS JUST TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO RECOVER SOME...HOWEVER AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR NW ARE
LIKELY TOO WORKED OVER AND HAVE A VERY LIMITED SVR WX RISK. DUE TO
THE CAPPING MENTIONED ABOVE...THE CENTRAL...E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ACTIVITY MUCH LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT TIME HRS.

AS FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST...HAVE MODIFIED TEMPS
ACROSS THE NW AND KEPT THOSE AREAS COOLER. THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS
OK OTHER THAN SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. AS FOR THE POPS/WX.
THE BREAKDOWN WAS GOOD AND HAVE ONLY TWEAKED TIMING SOME. I DID
REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THE E/SE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  60  78  53 /  65  99  13   7
MERIDIAN      82  61  80  51 /  12  93  28  10
VICKSBURG     74  60  77  51 / 100  67   8   5
HATTIESBURG   83  62  82  54 /   9  94  28   5
NATCHEZ       79  59  77  52 /  87  76   9   3
GREENVILLE    74  57  74  51 / 100  54   8   7
GREENWOOD     74  60  75  52 /  93  80  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1123 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
261623-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1123 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SET TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RISK
OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

THE SETUP TODAY IS A BIT COMPLEX AS MORNING STORMS HAVE MOVED
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION AND STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOW LEFT OVER AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EAST BEING IMPACTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20 WITH PORTIONS OF THE DELTA ONLY SEEING A FEW STRONG STORMS.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THIS LOCATION WILL SEE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. ALL
ACTIVITY WILL FIRST OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A STEADY PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
FROM A LINE OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. EXPECT
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
PONDING OF WATER ISSUES.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
BIT HIGHER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WEST OF A NATCHEZ...TO
VICKSBURG...TO GREENWOOD LINE. HERE...THE TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD BRING ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE MOST
AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF A BROOKHAVEN TO
QUITMAN LINE.  ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN BELOW A MILE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT
MAY 1ST.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S GREENVILLE          33.36N 91.05W
04/25/2007                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF WILCOX ROAD
            AND HWY 1 ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE.

0848 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E ARCOLA              33.27N 90.86W
04/25/2007                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE DOWN ON HWY 61 NEAR ARCOLA.

&&

ESA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S LAKE VILLAGE        33.31N 91.28W
04/25/2007                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** ONE FATALITY REPORTED DUE TO A CAPSIZED
            BOAT ON LAKE CHICOT DUE TO HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
            THUNDERSTORM.

&&

BANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S LAKE VILLAGE        33.31N 91.28W
04/25/2007  E60.00 MPH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** ONE FATALITY REPORTED DUE TO A CAPSIZED
            BOAT ON LAKE CHICOT DUE TO HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
            THUNDERSTORM.

&&

BANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GREENWOOD           33.52N 90.24W
04/25/2007                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A BUILDING ALONG HIGHWAY 82. THIS ROOF
            ALSO CAUSED SOME STOP LIGHTS TO COME DOWN.

&&

BANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1055 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLY RIDGE             32.47N 91.63W
04/25/2007                   RICHLAND           LA   UTILITY COMPANY

            NORTHEAST LOUISIANA POWER REPORTED THAT A POWER POLE WAS
            BLOWN DOWN NEAR HOLLY RIDGE.

&&

HAMRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
202 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE GRENADA           33.79N 89.76W
04/25/2007                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SCATTERED TREES REPORTED DOWN AROUND GRENADA LAKE.

&&

BANNAN