Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Jackson, MS

Bolivar County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WITH NOT MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF RAIN...ONLY 0.28 HERE
AT JAN. WITH THE FRONT NOW PASSED AND NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE FIRST 36 HRS WILL BE WINDS AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND TEMPS TONIGHT.

TODAY SKIES WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE EXTREME SE WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
EXITING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. SO FIRST LETS LOOKS AT WINDS
TODAY. WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NNW AND JUST ABV THE SFC
WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 TO EVEN 40KTS AND THESE WINDS WILL BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL TO THE SFC WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THAT WE WILL PRETTY
MUCH HAVE FULL SUN AND STRONG CAA IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS
THROUGH THIS AFTN. THIS WILL ALL HELP THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SFC AND THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WIND GUST NEAR 30 MPH OR
GREATER. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADV FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER BY LATE
AFTN. AS FOR FIRE WXR CONCERNS...MUCH DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 20S LATER TODAY. COMBINE
THAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MIN RH VALUES WILL
BE AROUND 25-30%...COMBINE THIS WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY AND LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND TODAY WOULD NOT BE A GOOD DAY TO
BURN. ALSO KEETCH-BYRAM INDICES ARE ON THE FRINGE OR TOO LOW FOR
LOCAL CRITERIA. WITH THIS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY RED FLAG WARNING
BUT WILL CONTACT THE FIRE DISTRICTS LATE THIS MORNING AND SEE HOW
THEY FEEL.

TONIGHT WILL BE A COOL ONE FINALLY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CWA
WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. TONIGHT THE SFC HIGH WILL SIT RIGHT
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE CALM AND PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. IN ADDITION TO THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE 20S. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE OPTIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREA TO GET
INTO THE LOWER 30S IF NOT LOWER. THE NORMAL COOL SITES COULD VERY
WELL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S(ESPECIALLY GWO AND TVR). MOST SITES
ALONG AND NORTH OF I 20 AND EAST OF I 55 SOUTH OF I 20 HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THERE FIRST FREEZE. AS FREEZE WARNINGS GO MOST OF THE AREAS
THAT WILL NOT BE MARGINAL HAVE ALREADY SEEN THERE FIRST FREEZE.
SECOND IT IS THE MIDDLE OF NOV AND LOCAL CRITERIA HAS NOV 15TH AS
THE CUTOFF DATE. WITH THIS I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE WARNING
PRODUCT BUT WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO. THE ONE LOCATION THAT MAY
NEED A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE THE LOUISIANA PARISHES THAT HAVE
LIKELY NOT SEEN A GOOD FREEZE YET BUT I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
TANGLE WITH THAT ONE.

TOMORROW SKIES LOOK TO BE SUNNY ONCE AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THU. LL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH H925 AROUND 6-9C. THIS
SUGGEST UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S BUT UNDER FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS
ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING THAT WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. COME FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL/GA STATE LINE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST WHILE THE ONCE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN TROUGH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR DRY AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND PWS BELOW A HALF
INCH...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF
IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT THAN THE
00Z THU GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OUR CWA SUNDAY A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEFORE STALLING
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT AND RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. THE DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVELS BEGIN
AMPLIFYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO OUR REGION
AND LEAD TO SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE WHOLE CWA.
THERE IS PLENTY OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LOW WILL CUTOFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. CONSIDERING THE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ONLY ISSUES MAY BE WINDS BUT THERE WILL BE NO LLWS TO WORRY ABOUT
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF BY AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  31  63  42 /   1   0   0   2
MERIDIAN      57  30  63  36 /   1   0   0   2
VICKSBURG     61  29  65  44 /   0   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   63  33  63  39 /   2   0   0   2
NATCHEZ       61  33  65  45 /   1   0   0   2
GREENVILLE    60  30  63  44 /   0   0   0   2
GREENWOOD     58  28  64  40 /   0   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: CAB
LONG TERM: 22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
535 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE ARE NUMEROUS MINOR HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THESE INCLUDE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND
FREEZING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9AM TILL 4PM FOR THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL APPROACH 30
TO 40 MPH AND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COLD DESCENDING AIR SOME OF THESE
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND AS GUSTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER EXPECTED. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND AN OVERALL LACK OF
RAINFALL AND THIS WILL NOT MAKE FOR IDEAL BURNING CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CONCERN OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT RIGHT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND COMBINE THAT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE CWA ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
HATTIESBURG TO VICKSBURG TO CROSSETT...ARKANSAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN
THEIR FIRST FREEZE BUT THE LOUISIANA PARISHES AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES HAVE ONLY SEEN MARGINAL FREEZING CONDITIONS IF
ANY SO FAR AND THIS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE IN THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CAB