Alert archive / Louisiana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2007

Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Jackson, MS

September 20, 2007Catahoula Parish, Louisiana

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood warning at Sep 20, 2007, 2:17 PM CDT for Catahoula Parish, Louisiana. It was in force for 118 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 20, 2007, 2:17 PM CDT (19:17 UTC)
Expired
Sep 20, 2007, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Flood severity
Minor

County Catahoula Parish, LA

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2007-09-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2007-09-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -45 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1610 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KJAN 201922
FFWJAN
LAC025-202115-
/T.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0016.070920T1917Z-070920T2115Z/
/00000.1.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TEST...FLASH FLOOD WARNING...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
217 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FLOODGATE
RELEASE IN...
  CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. AT 217 PM CDT...THE FLOODGATES ON THE TEST 
DAM WERE OPENED CAUSING FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM ON THE TEST RIVER.

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE NO LOCATION

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS
HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3184 9182 3172 9180 3162 9184 3175 9199

$$

MVP
3 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS74 KJAN 201931
FFSJAN

TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

LAC025-202115-
/T.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070920T2115Z/
/00000.1.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATAHOULA LA-
230 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
CATAHOULA PARISH...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGIST CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TEST

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE A TEST...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF
FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN
ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN.

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3184 9182 3172 9180 3162 9184 3175 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 180DEG 0KT 3173 9186

$$

MVP
000 
WGUS74 KJAN 201942
FFSJAN

TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

LAC025-201949-
/T.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070920T2215Z/
/00000.1.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATAHOULA LA-
239 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CATAHOULA PARISH...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3184 9182 3172 9180 3162 9184 3175 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 180DEG 0KT 3173 9186

$$


MVP
000 
WGUS74 KJAN 201947
FFSJAN

TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
247 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

LAC025-201957-
/T.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070920T2245Z/
/00000.1.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATAHOULA LA-
247 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CATAHOULA PARISH...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3177 9184 3171 9173 3166 9183 3174 9184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 180DEG 0KT 3172 9181

$$

MVP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 20, 10:24 AM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 20, 10:24 AM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL REGION. SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS
COMING FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF THE GULF SYSTEM. TONIGHT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP FROM THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR
FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE EAST
DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR DAILY
HIGHS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 TODAY AS
WELL AS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR FRIDAY. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED A LITTLE
COOL FOR THE EAST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. SO
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. /17/

.LONG TERM...NEEDLESS TO SAY MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF DISCREPANCY RELATES TO THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
FLORIDA COAST INTO THE GULF. MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BOTH POSITIONING IT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY. THE NEWEST
MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO IN BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH THE EURO SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH FARTHER EWD...DEVELOPING A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX OVER MS AND LA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE
AFTER THAT. THE GFS LIFTS THE SURFACE LOW INLAND BEFORE WASHING IT
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW THAT IT LIFTS INLAND FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. THE EURO TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW NWWD ACROSS
LA...TRACKING THE REMNANTS INTO NERN TX BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH
SOLUTIONS RESULT IN A LARGE SWATH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE EVENTUAL NATURE OF THE LOW CENTER WILL HAVE A GREAT
DEAL TO DO IN DETERMINING THE NATURE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING A WIDE AREA OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT QPF TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. IF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW BECOMES
MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE...HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FALL INTO MORE AGREEMENT BY MONDAY WHEN THE REMNANTS
OF THE LOW FALL APART INLAND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
TROUGHING FORCING UPPER RIDGING EWD OFF THE EAST COAST AND SWD INTO
THE GULF. SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH BUT MODELS AGREE IN SUGGESTING THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION. CONSIDERED INCREASING COOLER
TEMPS FORECAST FOR THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME BUT WILL HOLD OFF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL TIMING.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       61  89  70  86 /   0   3  22  51
MERIDIAN      60  89  70  86 /   0  17  33  50
VICKSBURG     62  92  68  88 /   0   3  14  49
HATTIESBURG   64  88  71  87 /   0  24  23  57
NATCHEZ       61  89  68  85 /   0   3   7  46
GREENVILLE    62  92  67  89 /   0   3   9  34
GREENWOOD     60  90  68  87 /   0   2  13  35

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/03/15
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 20, 2:57 AM CDT, 11 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
257 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210800-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
257 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2007Every flash flood warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.