Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HUMBERTO REMAINS SPINNING
EWD ACROSS SHARKEY/HUMPHREYS COUNTIES CURRENTLY WITH HEAVY RAINBAND
FROM GREENWOOD TO WINONA AND EUPORA MOVING SLOWLY EWD. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP FFA GOING THROUGH 6 AM AND REVISIT AT THAT TIME FOR POSSIBLE
EXTENSION IN THE NERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...SHRA HAVE
BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MS GENERALLY E OF I-55 AND
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE W AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. 88D RADAR
RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS NW OF
A DEKALB-JACKSON-BROOKHAVEN LINE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OF 4-5 INCHES.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT NEAR A KSTL-KSGF-KAMA LINE SHOULD CROSS THE
OZARKS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SWD IN THE
WAKE OF OUR HUMBERTO CIRCULATION. 88D RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO
INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS NW OF A DEKALB-JACKSON-
BROOKHAVEN LINE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OF REACHING 4-5 INCHES.

THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR CWFA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH LINGERING STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND
CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT FROM MAV MOS BUT A
DECENT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS BRINGING A TOUCH OF AUTUMN TO THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR 60 N TO U60S S...HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
STAY BETWEEN 80-85F WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BY MIDDAY AT NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS./40/

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE RATHER QUIET.  SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR.  PWATS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW AN INCH AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WE SEE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WORK ITS WAY EAST TO CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION...MAINLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MODELS BEGIN TO HINT AT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL INCREASE
POPS FROM THE EAST OVER THE CWFA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD GIVEN LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AND LOWER VALUES GIVEN BY ENSEMBLES.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  BELIEVE
GUI IS COMING IN A BIT TOO COOL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THAT NIGHT
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST IN THE LONG TERM WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND
CLEAR SKIES. BUT FEEL GUI IS OVERDOING THE COOLER TEMPS CONSIDERING
THAT SOIL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRETTY HIGH GIVEN RAINFALL.  WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES.  OTHER
CHANGES MADE WERE TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR A FEW
SITES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA.  OTHERWISE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF IFR CEILINGS
IN RAIN AND ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BROKEN
CLOUD LAYERS OF 3-4K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMBERTO BEGINS TO
DEPART THE AREA. THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MS
DELTA REGION 23-01Z AND PASS THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
02-05Z BEFORE RACING THROUGH SRN MS 05-08Z TONIGHT. EXPECT LINGERING
STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT 2-3K FEET THROUGH 12-14Z SATURDAY AS N
SURFACE WINDS REACH 12-18KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  64  83  57 /  31  11   2   1
MERIDIAN      83  65  82  55 /  60  13   3   2
VICKSBURG     86  65  83  56 /  14   9   1   1
HATTIESBURG   86  67  84  59 /  39  14   2   1
NATCHEZ       86  66  83  58 /  14  10   2   1
GREENVILLE    85  60  79  54 /  16   7   1   2
GREENWOOD     83  60  80  52 /  59   7   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MSZ025>033-073-074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

40/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
150530-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE REMNANT CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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