Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 050218
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1016 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

INC017-181-050245-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-070705T0245Z/
CASS IN-WHITE IN-
1016 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND
EASTERN WHITE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

AT 1013 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS 
LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURNETTSVILLE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF MONTICELLO...TO NEAR ROYAL CENTER...AND MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROYAL
CENTER...LAKE CICOTT...LUCERNE...FLETCHER...LEASES CORNER...
GEORGETOWN...CLYMERS...DUNKIRK AND LOGANSPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM... 
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND POSSIBLY CREATING LOCALIZED 
FLOODING IN DITCHES AND CULVERTS. 

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4092 8672 4092 8698 4066 8678 4074 8677
      4069 8637 4078 8629 4091 8634 4091 8656

$$

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 050244
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

INC017-181-050252-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-070705T0245Z/
CASS IN-WHITE IN-
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND EASTERN WHITE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA EXPIRES AT 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1041 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF WHITE COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN CASS COUNTY. 1 TO 3 
INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF 
DITCHES AND CULVERTS.   

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4092 8672 4092 8698 4066 8678 4074 8677
      4069 8637 4078 8629 4091 8634 4091 8656

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
803 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTION HAS STAYED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AS THE CF HAS SAGGED OFF TO THE SOUTH...FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KFWA TO NEAR KVPZ. CLEARING HAS FILTERED INTO KSBN, WHILE
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT KFWA SHOULD HOLD ONTO SCT CU THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH THE LACK OF ANY LLV DRYING BEHIND THIS FRONT
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...AND SKC...THINK SILL SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS 7Z TO 14Z THU. LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS IN BRINGING
FWA DOWN TO 3SM BR DURING THIS TIME. SHORTWAVE IN WNW FLOW WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO NRN IN AFTER 19Z THU.
JUST INCLUDED A CB GROUP FOR NOW AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY
NORTH AND EAST OF SBN/FWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION TO CU FIELD BEING OBSERVED NRN IL TO WRN CWA
WITH NOSE OF 2000 J/KG SBCAPE INTO SWRN CWA AT 19 UTC AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED WITH SFC DPS POOLED NEAR 70 ACROSS SRN
CWA. UPSTREAM BREAKS ALONG WITH GOOD 0-2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AXIS/SLIGHTLY BACKED SFC WINDS SOUTH OF FNT POINT TO CONTINUED GOOD
CHC FOR TSRA INITIATION...AS BNDRY AND LAKE MICHIGAN PUSH BECOME
MORE EVIDENT WITH LOSS OF WIDESPREAD MVFR SC CIGS NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. TSRA STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH WEAK /20-25KT/
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT...WITH TREND REFLECTING IN GRIDS/ZFP
WORDING. BRIEF/ISOLD WIND GUST TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS/SMALL HAIL
STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTH BUT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. RAISED
TSRA CHCS THU AFTERNOON AS STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE ACROSS SRN CANADA
FAVORABLY TIMED INTO SOUTHERN GRTLKS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
40-50KT 0-6KM ASSOCIATED WITH 60KT ML JET STREAK WITH LONG STRAIGHT
HODOS AND FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE/LOW WET BULB PROFILE/STEEP ML
LAPSE RATES GIVE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED
WIND GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN ENVIRONMENT THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL CERTAINLY PRESENT IN LATER PERIODS OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO HANDLING OF
NORTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKEST IN
CONSISTENCY...WITH ITS 180 DEGREE REVERSAL IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE 12Z TO THE 00Z RUN. HAVE OPTED TO BLEND
FORECAST DATABASE TO A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GEM/06Z GFS/WITH A
TREND TOWARD CLIMO AT DAY 7. THIS IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
HPC.

NOT MUCH CHANGES MADE TO FIRST FEW PERIODS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS OVERALL DATA IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY FOLLOWING SECONDARY COLD FRONT/MID
LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT TO REFLECT WEAK CAA. HEIGHT RISES
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SAT-SUN VIA WAA INITIATED BY ADVANCING
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. VERY WARM CONDITIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK
FOR SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED IN THE LOWER 20S C. IN
RESPONSE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRINGING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 F
BY MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S WILL GENERATE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 F.

UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH CAA ON BACK SIDE OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT BY MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT...CAPE VALUES SHOULD APPROACH
2500 TO 3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK GOOD AND HAVE EXPANDED
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
FRONT.

HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN SOME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..CONTINUING
TO TREND TOWARD GFS/MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH INTENSIFYING HUDSON BAY LOW...WHILE
RETROGRADING THE ENTIRE COMPLEX WEST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE INTENSITY OF NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGING...A
LARGE SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES. NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS H85 TEMPS ARE NOT AS COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ARE ALSO NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENING.
HOWEVER...GFS HAS PERFORMED WELL THIS SPRING/EARLY SUMMER IN CASES
WHERE SUBSTANTIAL H85 COOLING HAS OCCURRED. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN AO INDEX FAVORING A NOTICEABLE COOLER CYCLE MID NEXT
WEEK...COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM....CHAMBERLAIN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1153 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

INZ013-015>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-025-051600-
PULASKI-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...ROCHESTER...
WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1153 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30 BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

IN ADDITIONS TO THE CHANCE FOR STORMS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
95 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HEAT STRESS
AND HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES BECOME MORE FREQUENT WITH THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-MIZ077-051600-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
1153 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007 /1053 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

WAVES UP TO 3 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
TODAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY.

IN ADDITIONS TO THE CHANCE FOR STORMS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
95 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HEAT STRESS
AND HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES BECOME MORE FREQUENT WITH THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-051600-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
1153 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GALE FORCE OR HIGHER WIND GUSTS. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

INZ004>009-012-014-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-051600-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-MARSHALL-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...
HILLSDALE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...
NAPOLEON
1153 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007 /1053 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY.

IN ADDITIONS TO THE CHANCE FOR STORMS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
95 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HEAT STRESS
AND HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES BECOME MORE FREQUENT WITH THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX