Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 031928
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007

INC113-031936-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-070603T2000Z/
NOBLE IN-
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NOBLE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED 
NORTHEAST INTO LAGRANGE COUNTY AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE 
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY IN NOBLE COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4152 8560 4148 8534 4158 8520 4173 8546

$$

INC087-032000-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-070603T2000Z/
LAGRANGE IN-
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR LAGRANGE COUNTY...

AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ADAMS LAKE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAGRANGE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
INDIANOLA...BIG LONG LAKE AND PLATO.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...
PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.....ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4152 8560 4148 8534 4158 8520 4173 8546

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL N-S ORIENTED LINES OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN INDIANA
EARLY THIS AFTN. ONE LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH FWA AND CONTG
TO DVLP TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONT TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT
1-2HRS. VISIBLE STLT INDICATES A SMALL CLEAR SLOT WEST OF SBN WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL
AFFECT SBN THIS AFTN. CDFNT OVER ERN IL SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN
INDIANA THIS EVE, SHIFTING WINDS TO WEST AND DECREASING CONVECTION.
SECONDARY CDFNT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN
WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR MORE
LIKELY JUST BEYOND, SO NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK PRECIP WISE...GIVEN AMPLE FORCING AVAILABLE FROM H5 VORTEX.

CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 TO 30 KNOT LL JET IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN IN/EASTERN IL PER VWP/PROFILER/RUC ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE
COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL WAVE HAS ALLOWED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY...WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND AS LL JET WEAKENS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WRF AND
GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BROAD LIFT FROM H5 VORTEX WILL INCREASE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL DRY IN PLACE UPSTREAM
GIVEN 00Z DVN SOUNDING. BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE HOW MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS FA BEFORE GOOD DYNAMICS FALL IN PLACE.
SUNSHINE MAY BE LACKING TODAY DUE TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM
CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS
TODAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD COOLER SOLUTION IN FORECAST...GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF SUNSHINE DOES BREAK
OUT...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES WOULD EASILY CLIMB TO AOR 1500 J/KG.
DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...PRODUCING DEEP SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES. BOTTOM LINE...IF GOOD
HEATING DOES OCCUR...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.

AGAIN HIGHS TODAY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. CURRENT
TEMPS IN GRIDS REFLECT PARTIAL CLEARING. TEMPS COULD EASILY SWAY
5-7 DEGREES EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF ISOLATION.

RAIN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. DRY SLOT WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD WAVE MAY CLEAR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES...HENCE
HAVE LEFT LOWER POPS THERE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FA
TONIGHT. AMPLE LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH EXPECTED RAIN COMBINED
WITH THIS COOLER AIR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. HAVE NOT WORDED IN
FORECAST YET...AS THERE IS QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY BEFORE
OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT ON TUESDAY. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
UNDER CIRCULATION MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT
WAVES SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY. BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. MODELS LINGER MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT SO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LOW BEGINS TO EXIT ON TUE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON
BACK SIDE. PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED POPS FOR TUE SO WILL CONTINUE THOUGH
DRYING WORKING IN QUICKLY. MODELS MAY STILL BE A TAD FAST LIFTING
LOW OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. CUT TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW OVER
AREA AND FLOW INCREASING OFF OF COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM12 2M TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET OUT OF THE 50S. HAVE DROPPED TO MID 60S CLOSER
TO COOLER MOS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO MENTION RIP CURRENTS FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN IN HWO FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASING WAVES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR WED BEFORE RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY SETS UP AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS MODELS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT AND TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WOULD EXPECT SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. BEST FOCUS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
WILL MONITOR. THURSDAY STILL LOOKING VERY WARM AND CONTINUED TO STAY
ABOVE MEX MOS AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. ECMWF VERY WARM
WITH +20C AT 850MB. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GIVEN
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF TRIGGER TIL LATER IN THE DAY OR THU
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY IN TIMING
AND GENERAL SOLUTIONS SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON FRONTAL
POSITION AND MOVEMENT SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JT/LF
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN
LONG TERM....LASHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
509 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-040915-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
509 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007 /409 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER... ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE.

THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN
MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND WAVES
INCREASE. AVOID SWIMMING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIP
CURRENTS. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO THE SHORE
UNTIL YOU ARE FREE OF THE CURRENT...THEN SWIM TO SHORE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-040915-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
509 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10
AND 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET DURING THE DAY
AND 3 TO 6 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
ISSUED FOR MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
203 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE FORT WAYNE         41.01N  85.06W
06/03/2007  M1.75 INCH       ALLEN              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

TCC