Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 262233
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
631 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

OHC051-069-262300-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-070526T2300Z/
HENRY OH-FULTON OH-
631 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FULTON AND NORTHERN HENRY COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
OHIO...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL 
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS 
LOCATED JUST EAST OF NAPOLEON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
TEXAS...COLTON...BRAILEY AND SWANTON.

SEEK SHELTER NOW IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4148 8422 4134 8417 4129 8388 4160 8387
      4158 8402

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IS UNFOLDING IN THE SHORT TERM...AS
NUMEROUS QUESTIONS EXIST WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF IL. PROFILER NETWORK REVEALS 50 KNOT H6 SPEED MAX WITH
REMNANT SOUTHERN PLAINS VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT...HAS ALLOWED A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST CENTRAL IL
INTO NORTHERN IL. OTHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN
NORTHERN IN...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK CAPPING AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MAIN PRECIP AREA IN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
CWA EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO REMAIN IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED
TONIGHT WITH BL DECOUPLING. WRF INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF 30 TO 40
KNOT H85 JET BY 03Z. THIS ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP THREAT TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SLOW MOVEMENT
OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. NOT THINKING SEVERE DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AGAIN BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR BAROCLINIC ZONE IN SOUTHERN MI/FAR NORTHERN
IN. DURATION OF PRECIP IS TRICKY WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE EXITING BY
07Z...PRECIP MAY END ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED WAVES IN SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FRONTAL TIMING
AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FAVOR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR BEST PRECIP
CHANCES. HAVE TRENDED LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM...PRECIP CHANCES MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND OPACITY OF CLOUDS COULD ALSO HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON HIGHS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS
COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LOWER 80S THERE. MOS AND MODELS ALL
DIFFER ON THIS SOLUTION. HAVE BASICALLY TRENDED IN THE MIDDLE FOR
NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RATHER DRAMATIC PATTN SHIFT IN SIGHT THIS PD AS STUBBORN UPR LVL
RIDGE ACRS THE SERN US SHIFT EWD TWD ITS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
POSITION NR BERMUDA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING DVLPS ACRS THE ERN US AND
RIDGING BLDS ACRS THE WRN US. THIS TRANSITION SHLD OFFER MUCH MORE
IN THE WAY OF MUCH NEEDED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BY MID WEEK
AND AGAIN TWD LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE INTERIM...RATHER FLAT PROGRESSIVE UPR FLW IN PLACE INITIALLY
WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVR THE GULF OF
AK HEADED INLAND AND AMPLIFYING W/TIME ACRS SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS AND
THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK. DOWNSTREAM HGT AMPLIFICATION AND
BLDG THERMAL RIDGE WILL AGAIN PROMOTE VRY WARM TEMPS W/LOW-MID 80S
ANTICIPATED TUE/WED BFR ATTENDANT CDFNT NEARS W/INCREASING GOMEX
INFLUX AND ASSOCD PRECIP THREAT WED-THU NIGHT AND COOLDOWN THU/FRI
W/UPR LOW OVERHEAD. SECONDARY SYS THEN ADVERTISED TO RELOAD ERN
TROUGH JUST OUTSIDE THIS PD LT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
RESIDE IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WHERE SFC FRONT IS
LOCATED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM GUS TO FWA AND EAST WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON. SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AND ALLOW ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THIS
THREAT AT SBN.

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST INDIANA. SBN HAS
BEEN ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA MOST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING THIS
ZONE OF MVFR CIGS TO PUSH NORTH AS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHER MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN
LONG TERM....HOLSTEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-271115-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007 /604 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
STORMS TONIGHT. WHILE NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 6.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LOGANSPORT TO WARSAW TO COLDWATER
LINE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-271115-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. WHILE NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP