River Flood Warning 91, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WGUS83 KIWX 250215
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1015 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  ELKHART RIVER AT GOSHEN AFFECTING ELKHART AND NOBLE COUNTIES
  SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN AT THREE RIVERS AFFECTING ELKHART...
  BRANCH AND ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES
  SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN AT NILES AFFECTING ELKHART...ST. JOSEPH 
  AND BERRIEN COUNTIES
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS HIGH WATER EVENT.

INC039-MIC023-149-250245-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-070830T0600Z/
/TRVM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1015 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN AT THREE RIVERS
* AT 6 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 6.4 FEET FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE NEAR 6.6 FEET 
  AROUND  2 PM SATURDAY AUGUST 25.  


$$

INC039-141-MIC021-250245-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-070830T1500Z/
/NILM4.1.ER.070824T0740Z.070824T1300Z.070824T1618Z.NO/
1015 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN AT NILES
* AT 10 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL TO NEAR 10.9 FEET AROUND  2 AM 
  SATURDAY AUGUST 25.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10.9 FEET FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING.


$$

INC039-113-250245-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070827T1800Z/
/GSHI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1015 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ELKHART RIVER AT GOSHEN
* AT 10 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 6.2 FEET FRIDAY 
  NIGHT.  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1019 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.UPDATE...
MAINLY UPDATED TO KEEP THE WORDING FRESH. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING AND NOT TOO MUCH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING ON AT
THE MOMENT ON RADARS TO THE WEST. WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE
AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOSE ARE
THE TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 701 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007/
DIFFICULT SHRT TERM FCST. MCS TRAIN STRETCHING FM NW MO INTO NRN
IN DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. HWVR STOUT SW TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF KS WILL REACH SRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. DEEPENING SFC
WAVE PASSING NORTHWEST OF TAF SITES SUGGESTS RAPID DESTABILIZATION
SHLD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTN PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION UPSTREAM
ACRS IL. BEST GUESS AT TIMING INTO KSBN LOOKS TO BE NR 21Z AND BY
23Z AT KFWA PER 09Z RUC/NSSL 4KM WRF. UPSTREAM MID LVL SPEED MAX
UNSEASONABLY STG AND GIVEN DEGREE OF ASCENT AHD OF UPR TROUGH AND
XPCD INSTABILITY WILL TEMPO PD OF MVFR IN +TSRA LT AFTN/EVENING
W/PREVAILING MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN VFR LOOKS TO
SUFFICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD/FLOODING AND AFTN SEVERE TSRA. UPSTREAM CONFLUENT SFC-
7H FLOW IN EXTREME MOISTURE/PWAT BAND OF 2-2.25 INCHES CONTINUES
TO FEED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. STRONGEST FOCUS ON NOSE OF
55-60KT LLJ INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO WITH CLOUD TOPS TO M80C. THIS
FEATURE IS MAIN CONCERN AS IT EJECTS NEWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG ENERGY DIGGING INTO MT/WY ATTM. NOTED SHIFT TO DIFFLUENT
SFC-7H FLOW ACRS WRN CWA PER KIWX/WLCI3 KINEMATIC PROFILES. WILL
HAVE EARLY AM PERIOD FOR TSRA...TRANSITION TO CHC FOR MUCH OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. RAMP POPS UP AGAIN BY MID AFTERNOON WEST WITH
APPROACH OF STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC BAND WITH NEAR 60KT SPEED MAX
CONTRIBUTING TO 50-60 KNOTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BL TO DESTABILIZE
ALONG SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANVIL PER INCREASINGLY BACKED
UPSTREAM ANVIL STEERING FLOW. ANTICIPATE MLCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG
ACRS CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE REACHED AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LL CONVERGENT/UL DIVERGENT SIGNALS IN RIGHT
REAR OF 120 KT UL JET SIGNALS. STRONG FLOW/SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP/GROW UPSCALE INTO SEVERE
SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS NAM 00 UTC AND 06 UTC CONSISTENCY IN
DEVELOPING PREFRONTAL TROF IN INSTABILITY/RICHER THETA-E AIR FROM
SERN MI TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SFC
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NERN IL AND UNDERGOES STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WITH FAVORABLE LAYER ASCENT WITH 12HR 7H HGHT FALLS
ON ORDER OF 40-50M...FORMING A TRIPLE POINT WITH INCREASED 0-1KM
HELICAL PROFILE ACRS NWRN HALF OF CWA THAT MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS...
ESPECIALLY IN 03-06 UTC TIME FRAME TO FAVOR SUPERCELL/POSSIBLE
TORNADIC STORMS WELL AFTER DARK. OF COURSE HYDRO ISSUES TO BE OF
EQUALLY PROBLEMATIC IMPORTANCE WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT ROUND OF TSRA
REALIZES AN INCREASED PERCENTAGE TO RUNOFF. UPDATE TO FLOOD WATCH
TO HEIGHTEN MENTION OF MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLOODING/DOUBLE CREST
OF MAJOR STEM RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST OHIO.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LAST IN SERIES OF FNTL WAVES ALG LEADING EDGE OF STG NRN STREAM
TROUGH ACRS SRN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LT TONIGHT AND
ALLOW STG CDFNT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY OVR THE WEEKEND.
SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD STRONGLY SWD OUT OF CANADA AND BRING ABT A
MUCH NEEDED DRY SPELL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL RETAIN HOLD OVR POPS SAT MORNING BUT CUT BACK AFTN CHCS BASED
ON MORE AGREEABLE MED RANGE CONSENSUS ACCELERATING SFC BNDRY EWD.
THIS ALSO AFFORDS A COOLER LOOK TO TEMPS SAT-SUN AS SFC RIDGE
SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BEYOND THAT...SUGGESTION IS THAT WRN RIDGE WILL AGAIN TEMPORARILY
BLD EWD W/TEMPS RETURNING TO MUCH ABV NORMAL MON/TUE AND NXT CHC OF
RAIN PSBLY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT. HWVR WILL HOLD W/WED TIMING AT
THIS POINT. REMAINDER ON TRACK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>018-
     020-022>027-032>034.

MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN
AVIATION...HOLSTEN
UPDATE...LOTHAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
546 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-251000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
546 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007 /446 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM MARION TO DEFIANCE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 3 PM EDT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL EXACERBATE AND EXTEND THE ONGOING FLOODING WITH
SECONDARY FLOOD CRESTS POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS THIS WEEKEND.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A WINIMAC TO WAUSEON LINE WITH HEAT INDICES OF
95 TO 100 POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-251000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
546 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTH WINDS DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

NWS