Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 181034
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INC021-119-181045-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-071018T1100Z/
CLAY-OWEN-
635 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OWEN AND CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3957 8717 3956 8707 3949 8702 3946 8702
      3942 8666 3917 8698 3917 8702 3928 8713
      3943 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 1035Z 221DEG 59KT 3969 8691 3961 8676
          3943 8663

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS

LINE OF T-STORMS WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z AT THE LATEST.
MVFR OR BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AS THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH.  THEREAFTER...A BREAK IN PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WITH VFR CONDS
UNTIL ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 22Z. GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SILL APPEARS TO BE 22Z OR 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE FA MOVING NE. MOSAIC
SHOWS ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACRS W IL AND STRETCHING S
INTO AR. VWP SHOWS LL JET OF 60 KTS S OF THE FA. SFC ANALYSIS HAS
LOW PRES CENTERED OVR E NE WITH A WARM FNT JUST S OF THE FA AND A
COLD FNT STRETCHING SW THRU OK INTO W TX. TORNADO WATCHES STRETCHED
FROM CENTRAL IL SW TO AR.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WL USE A BLEND.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHCS OF SVR WX TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACRS THE FA AT THE START OF THE PD.
SPC HAS CONCERNS ABOUT ONGOING SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. TIMING
AND LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY WOULD ARGUE AGAINST THIS BUT WITH A
STRONG LL JET OF AROUND 60 KTS AND AN EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF SHEAR
COULD STILL SEE A FEW SVR STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS
SHUD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. LAYER RH VALUES SHOW A
DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE FA AT THIS TIME AND THIS MATCHES NICELY
WITH THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOP BEHIND THE
STORMS. THUS EXPECT CLOUD CVR TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
DECREASE IN CLD CVR WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND GFS/NAM
HAVE SFC BASED CAPES OF AROUND 1000 OR MORE ACRS THE AREA BY 0Z. JET
MAX OF OVR 100 KTS WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE TROF AND BE
SWINGING UP THRU INDIANA FROM 0Z-12Z FRI. LL JET STILL LOOKS LIKE
ABOUT 50KTS OUT OF THE SW DURING THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 70-80 KTS. 0-3KM SRH IS OVR 300 UNTIL AFTER 6Z.
SPC SREFS GIVE A GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 0-1KM
HELICITY OF 150 AT 0Z. LCLS AND LFCS ARE LOW. SIG TOR PARAMETER IS
OVER 4 ACRS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME AS WELL. ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING
TO TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING. BOW ECHOES WITH SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALSO FAVORED. IF MODEL TIMING IS
CORRECT BEST CHCS WILL BE FROM 0-6Z...BUT WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS
BACK TO 21Z IN CASE THINGS GET STARTED A LITTLE EARLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVR AFTER FNT MVS THRU. UPR TROF MVING THRU
INDIANA WILL KEEP A CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE N AND MO CLDY SKIES IN THE
FA FOR THE DAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FNT COMBINED WITH THE CLD
CVR WL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. UPR RDG STARTS TO BLD INTO THE AREA
FRI NT AND CLDS START CLEARING OUT. WITH CONTINUED CAA SHUD SEE LOWS
DROP INTO THE UPR 40S SIMILAR TO MAV NUMBERS. WITH THE UPR RDG
GETTING INTO PLACE WL HAVE A DRY WEEKEND AND WITH WAA RAMPING UP
WILL SEE TEMPS INCREASING EACH DAY.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

AVIATION...CO
PUBLIC...CP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190815-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
410 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 /310 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THESE THREATS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS WITH A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE TIMING ON THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS BETWEEN 5 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
456 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-181300-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
456 AM EDT (356 AM CDT) THU OCT 18 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS SET OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY MID
MORNING. SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE WHICH WILL
SERVE TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
WELL AS DEEP LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
ELEMENTS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BOW ECHOES WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL AS TORNADOES
FROM ANY STORMS THAT MAY FORM.