Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 160557
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
154 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

INC095-160604-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-070816T0615Z/
MADISON-
154 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4014 8482 4015 8557 4036 8557 4039 8557
      4040 8522 4032 8520 4033 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0554Z 313DEG 35KT 4018 8480 4015 8501
          4017 8547

$$

INC035-135-160615-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-070816T0615Z/
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-
154 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT
FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH AND DELAWARE COUNTIES...

AT 151 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM SARATOGA TO WINCHESTER TO YORKTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST 
AT 40 MPH.

AT 140 AM...COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED PART OF AN ENCLOSED PORCH 
BLOWN OFF A HOUSE IN RIDGEVILLE.

LAT...LON 4014 8482 4015 8557 4036 8557 4039 8557
      4040 8522 4032 8520 4033 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0554Z 313DEG 35KT 4018 8480 4015 8501
          4017 8547

$$

JAS

000 
WWUS53 KIND 160616
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
216 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

INC035-135-160626-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-070816T0615Z/
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-
216 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 215 AM EDT...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4014 8482 4015 8557 4036 8557 4039 8557
      4040 8522 4032 8520 4033 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 313DEG 35KT 4016 8477 4013 8498
          4015 8544

$$

JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD.  TSRA IN NORTHERN INDIANA AT 04Z WILL STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.  WILL CONTINUE WITH BKN LAYER CLOUDS
WHICH WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.  WIND
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER ON TONIGHT FURTHER INHIBITING FOG
FORMATION.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON
THURS.  PRECIP OR THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME AND PLACE SINCE AVAILABLITY OF MOISTURE IS STILL
IN QUESTION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FOCUS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF PRECIP.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE THERE WAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND STRETCHING WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IT RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. ALOFT THERE REMAINED A VERY STRONG RIDGE AT
H5 OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE RIDGE.

THE MODELS WERE DIFFERENT IN SEVERAL WAYS. THE NAM SHOWED A MUCH
MORE ROBUST CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE MET MOS ALSO HAD DEWPOINTS WAY TOO HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAV HAD DEWPOINTS TOO LOW AND SHOWED
ALMOST NO PRECIP TONIGHT. FURTHER OUT...THERE WERE SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. USED A
BLEND EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE ON THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
TONIGHT. A VORT MAX OVER THE PLAINS WILL CROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.
THE NAM BLOWS UP A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THE MET POPS ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE IN MOST AREAS. THUS THERE WAS ACTUALLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET POPS DESPITE THE MODELS LOOKING VERY
DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE VORT THAT THE
NAM USES TO DEVELOP EVERYTHING TONIGHT SEEMS VERY HARD TO FIND. IT
SEEMED THE GFS WITH ITS DEPICTION OF A WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST
VORT MAX LOOKED MORE REALISTIC. SO IT SEEMS THAT A MORE SCATTERED
NATURE IS LIKELY FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN THE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND THE LACK OF GOOD FORCING DID NOT REALLY BUY THE BIG AREA OF
QPF...AND FELT THAT THE BULK OF ANYTHING THAT FORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH
AND HIGHER CHANCE VALUES UP NORTH. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

ON THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. A STRONG RIDGE
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A DEEPENING VORTEX IS FOUND OVER HUDSON
BAY. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TEMPERATURE HEADACHES. I WAS
RELUCTANT TO GO TOO WARM OR TOO COOL GIVEN THE SHARP GRADIENT THAT
WILL EXIST IN TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE MAV LOOKED
TOO WARM FOR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING IT WAS MORE THAN
FIVE DEGREES TOO WARM FOR TODAY. SO WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
AND FWC WHICH SHOWS A HIGH OF NEAR 90. CONTINUED SOME CHANCE POPS
BUT NOTHING LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THERE WILL BE NO REAL
FORCING. THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BE STRONG AND PUSHING NORTH.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY IT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD. REMOVED THE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR A CONTINUED LACK OF FORCING.

BY FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. AND THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT IS WITH THE SHARP
DISCONTINUITY IN TEMPERATURES. THE MAV REMAINED VERY WARM AND WENT
WITH THE COOLER MET AND FWC.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY COOL PROVIDED THE FRONT MAKES IT
SOUTH OF THE AREA LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST. SOME EXTREMELY HOT AIR
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT FOR THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COOLER AIR OVER THE NORTH WILL WIN OUT THIS WEEKEND.
CHANCES OF PRECIP LATER THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
WITH THE HEAT RIDGE PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD OR AT LEAST TRYING TO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...SALLY
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065-161000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
DECATUR-
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
KOKOMO TO NEW CASTLE LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ051>053-062>064-070>072-161000-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

VERY HOT WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ060-061-067>069-161000-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007 /937 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

VERY HOT WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH