River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
AREAS OF MVFR HAD FORMED THIS MORNING AS SKIES HAD CLEARED. THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH WIND SO FAR WHICH HAS KEPT VSBYS FROM DROPPING
DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER AT KBMG WHERE GRADIENT IS LESS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE.  BY 14Z ALL FOG SHOULD BE
GONE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 4
THOUSAND SCT-BKN WITH THE BROKEN CLOUDS BEING PRIMARILY FROM KLAF
AND NORTHWARD. AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME
CLEAR BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MODERATE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
KIND AND KHUF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
INDIANA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

TODAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...COLD AIR
BEHIND THE CLIPPER FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA.  WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S TODAY.  MOS IS ALL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EACH OTHER SO HAVE USED A BLEND.

TONIGHT...THICKNESS PLOTS SHOW SOME NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WEAK H5 AND H7 RIDGING IS OVER INDIANA ALONG
WITH A SFC HIGH.  BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL BE ON THE RETURN FLOW SIDE.  WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY.  SFC PRESS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WIND WILL BE GUSTY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY.  THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PRE FRONTAL WARMING TO KICK
TEMPS INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED NIGHT
WITH FROPA.  CONCERN IS MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO JUST ALONG THE FRONT
BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH LLVL FRONTOGENISIS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
PRECIP BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HAVE
DROPPED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ALSO WITH SFC TEMPS
AND WET BULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BEST PRECIP TIMES HAVE
CHANGED PTYPE TO ALL RAIN THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WITH 20
POPS.  ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC.  MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THIS FAR BUT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF VARY GREATLY WITH THE
WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA.  WHILE IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW WILL FALL THIS WEEKEND
THERE ARE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS.
THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT DEVELOPS...PLACING SAID LOW OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE
CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE SAME TIME.  WITH SUCH
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
354 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007

INZ030-031-036>042-045>049-053>057-060>065-067>072-280900-
CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-
RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
354 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028-029-035-043-044-051-052-280900-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-CLAY-
354 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOWLAND FLOOD IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WABASH RIVER.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOWLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WABASH RIVER
FROM LAFAYETTE TO JUST NORTH OF TERRE HAUTE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID WEEK. SEE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST CREST
FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SALLY