Heat Advisory 1, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Bartholomew County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warren County, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
321 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

FOCUS IS GOING TO BE ON THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEK.

CURRENTLY OUR EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE PESKY FRONT HAS
NOW LIFTED TO A POSITION WELL NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS...AND IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXTREMELY ACTIVE TONIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AT H5
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE RIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN LAKES.

THE MODELS SHOWED LESS THAN WONDERFUL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND THE
MOS GUIDANCE WAS NOT VERY CLOSE. THE MET CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM
TOO HIGH DEWPOINTS...AS A CONSEQUENCE ITS HIGHS ARE PROBABLY TOO
COOL. THE MAV SHOWS THE DEWPOINTS TOO LOW...AND AS A CONSEQUENCE
ITS HIGHS ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH. SO HAVE DECIDED TO USE A BLEND.

TEMPS WILL DEPEND MOSTLY ON CLOUD COVER. THE H8 TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
READINGS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE EFFECTIVELY MIXED TO THE SURFACE.

FOR TODAY...THE ACTIVE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE NAM WAS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. IT SHOWS QPF
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR DOES NOT SHOW A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THUS THE GFS WAS
PREFERRED. EXPECTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTERFERE WITH TEMPS A BIT AND MAKE IT
TRICKY TO ACCURATELY FORECAST HIGHS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
MID 90S TODAY WITH H8 TEMPS OF +22 TO +23C. SO HAVE GONE TWO TO
THREE WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH EXPECTED LESS CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 OR MORE ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOWEST VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THERE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY ALL AREAS AFTER
16Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THE BOUNDARY MAY SAG SOUTH AND
FIRE UP AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD IMPACT MOSTLY THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. SO LEFT LOW CHANCES IN THERE BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL STAY VERY MILD AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND
NORTH OF OUR AREA. H8 TEMPS WILL PASS +24C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IF A FULL MIX WERE REALIZED.
THE PROBLEMS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND AND THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CUT THE POTENTIAL HIGHS SLIGHTLY. SO IT MAY
TOUCH 100 IN A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTH. BUT IN THE CENTRAL IT WILL
LIKELY COME UP A BIT SHORT. AS AN ASIDE...IT HAS ONLY REACHED 100
IN INDIANAPOLIS 7 TIMES DURING AUGUST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871.

WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW TOO. NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH NO STRONG FORCING AROUND
AND MID LEVEL WARMTH CAPPING THINGS.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY REMAINING VERY MILD IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND
PERHAPS UPPER 70S. A LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THIS WILL STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SO TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW 80 IN THE CITY.

THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER INDIANA. H8 TEMPS OF
+24C WILL AGAIN YIELD A POTENTIAL OF 100 DEGREES. BUT THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAKE ME RELUCTANT TO FORECAST THIS VALUE
IN CENTRAL INDIANA AGAIN. CHANCE POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE STRONG BY THURSDAY SO WIDESPREAD STORMS NOT
EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THE LOW SHOULD PASS AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE LOW
70S AT NIGHT. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW. H8 TEMPS WILL FALL TO +19C. WHICH YIELDS A FULL MIX OF LOW
90S. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TEMPS TO
REBOUND NICELY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO CHANGES MADE PAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT 06Z. THE TAF
LOCATIONS WILL START OUT AS EITHER VFR OR WITH HIGH MVFR VSBYS IN
HZ. FROM 08Z-10Z THE VSBYS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR IN
HAZE. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF INDIANA. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE ONLY BROUGHT IN A
MENTION OF CB IN ALL BUT KBMG. AFTER 14Z THE WINDS WILL PICK UP
ENOUGH TO BRING ALL VSBYS TO VFR. THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER INDIANA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND ALL TAF LOCATIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
INDIANA AFTER 23Z-01Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF ALL TAF
LOCATIONS WITH FROPA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-
067>072.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

AVIATION...MK/SH
PUBLIC...JOHNSON