Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 161644
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

ILC021-161715-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-070816T1715Z/
CHRISTIAN-
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY...

AT 1142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TAYLORVILLE TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF NOKOMIS...MOVING 
EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  OWANECO...
  ASSUMPTION...
  PANA...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3953 8935 3936 8938 3935 8903 3953 8903

$$

GEELHART/GOETSCH

000 
WWUS53 KILX 161713
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1213 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

ILC021-161723-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-070816T1715Z/
CHRISTIAN-
1213 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA...THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3953 8935 3936 8938 3935 8903 3953 8903

$$
GEELHART/GOETSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1031 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA WITH LL MOISTURE POOL AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE
SWRN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF WIND AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...NOT TO MENTION SOME RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY FOR AREAS SW OF A
PANA...LINCOLN...SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY...AS WELL AS POPS AND WX FOR THE CLUSTER. ZONE UPDATE
ALREADY SENT.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LYING WEST/EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSPI/KDEC
TERMINALS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY...REACHING
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT...WILL TREND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.

CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...AS IN RECENT DAYS...SHOULD BE QUITE LOW. SO...PLAN ON
CARRYING NO MORE THAN VCTS/VCSH AT THIS TIME AND WILL AMEND IF
NEEDED.

BAK
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
LEANED ON SREF AND NAM-WRF MODELS NEXT FEW DAYS AS GFS APPEARS TOO
FAR NORTH WITH QPF TONIGHT. FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION CHANCES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IL. ALSO ADDRESSING HOW HOT AND HUMID IT GETS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
DRY WX RETURNS FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.
THEN CONVECTION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER WI/MI
AND NORTHERN IL AGAIN.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
IN/IL/MO JUST SOUTH OF PEORIA AND MACOMB. ALOFT A 594 DM 500 MB
SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINED NEARLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN US AND INTO CANADA.
RADAR MOSAIC QUIET OVER IL AND NEARBY STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MCS OVER OHIO AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NW KS...CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND SE SD.

MODELS SLIP FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL IL. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF VERY WARM AND
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH
OF I-74. AREAS NORTH OF I-74 APPEAR TO STAY DRY WITH FRONT PASSING
THRU THIS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THIS AREA. SPC SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK SE OF IL. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE IL RIVER VALLEY INTO MID MORNING. LACON...GALESBURG AND
PONTIAC VSBY FROM 1 TO 2 MILES. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE IF NOT FOR PASSING PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM 85F FAR NORTH AT GALESBURG AND LACON TO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F
SE IL WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEXES FROM 100 TO 105F...JUST SHY OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE 20/30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS UNSTABLE AIR
LINGERS AND STILL SOME SHORT WAVES NEARBY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
FROM I-74 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS DRIFTS SE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND IL FRI ENSURING DRY WX WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LESS HUMID AIR. DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S FROM I-74 NORTH AND MID 60S
SE IL. GUIDANCE TEMPS A BIT WARMER AGAIN FOR FRI HIGHS. HAVE MID 80S
FROM I-74 NORTH AND LOWER 90S SW AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. WENT DRY FRI EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF I-55 AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT. SURFACE FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL SAT BUT
BUT MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER QPF ALONG AND NORTH OF 850 MB FRONT
OVER NORTHERN IL AND WI. FRONT NORTH OF CENTRAL IL SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHORT WAVES EJECTING NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IL
SUNDAY TO INCREASE CONVECTION CHANCES WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MON. ALSO MAY HAVE SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
ERIN MOVING UP FROM TX TO ENHANCE RAINFALL WHICH WE BADLY NEED.
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND TOO.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION CHANCES MON DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUE AS BEST
CONVECTION CHANCES SHIFT SE OF CENTRAL/SE IL TUE. SUBTROPICAL UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NEARBY ACROSS THE SE US WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

HUETTL

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1106 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>048-053-055>057-171100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA-PIATT-SCHUYLER-STARK-
TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
1106 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING A PERIODIC
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ049>052-054-061>063-066>068-071>073-171100-
CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
LAWRENCE-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
1106 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S IN AREAS WHERE THE
SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A HUMID AIRMASS TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE... BUT UNLIKELY
TO BE WIDESPREAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING A PERIODIC
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HJS