Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 232234
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ILC029-232243-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-070623T2315Z/
COLES-
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COLES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3923 8815 3898 8817 3913 8771 3948 8773

$$

ILC023-033-035-079-232315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-070623T2315Z/
CLARK-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-JASPER-
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD
AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOLEDO TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
NEWTON. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND 
DAMAGING WIND WAS 7 MILES SOUTH OF MARTINSVILLE. ALL OF THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  HAZEL DELL...
  YALE...
  CASEY...
  BELLAIR...
  MARTINSVILLE...
  ORANGE...
  ANNAPOLIS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 143.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3923 8815 3898 8817 3913 8771 3948 8773

$$

MILLER

000 
WWUS53 KILX 232300
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
559 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ILC035-079-232309-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-070623T2315Z/
CUMBERLAND-JASPER-
559 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CUMBERLAND AND JASPER COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3923 8794 3905 8796 3913 8771 3935 8772

$$

ILC023-033-232315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-070623T2315Z/
CLARK-CRAWFORD-
559 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN CLARK AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
MARSHALL TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROBINSON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  ORANGE.
  ANNAPOLIS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3923 8794 3905 8796 3913 8771 3935 8772

$$

MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS
RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS GETS PUSHED TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS MANITOBA BY MIDWEEEK. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY.

MOST OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEP RAIN IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THEIR DEPICTION AS TO
ANY PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
A SURFACE LOW BETWEEN QUINCY AND STL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONT WHICH EXTENDED INTO SE IL/SW IND.
T-STORMS HAVE ERUPTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE/MCV MOVES OUT OF IOWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE IN AREAS EAST OF I-55 AS THE BEST
FORCING SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF IL. LOCATIONS TO THE WEST
MAY SEE SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS
GOING ON SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 AS WEAK UPPER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CENT/EASTERN IL. NO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK SURFACE TROFING MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THE PICTURE GETS REALLY FUZZY ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...WITH NO
SURFACE REFLECTION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME WITH
THIS...WITH THE NAM INDICATED SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AND THE GFS
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS
ARE OVERDONE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF SIGNFICANCE WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM
TROF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT...AND
MOVE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
MIDWEEK. THE GFS SEEMS A BIT QUICK WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP WITH THIS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN NW LOCATIONS NEAR GALESBURG WHERE SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD MOVE
IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIG A LITTLE
DEEPER INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO REFORM
TO OUR WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT
WILL BE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

MILLER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS APPROACHING WITH THE NEXT WAVE UP FROM
THE SW ALONG INTO THE FA. CONTINUING RATHER LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VISBY AS THE CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-241100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS ILLINOIS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS
AS THE TIMING AND SEVERE THREAT BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HJS