Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 012021
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

ILC025-012031-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-070601T2045Z/
CLAY-
321 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3871 8849 3867 8835 3883 8826 3887 8839

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
253 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE POPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS PIECES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

18Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
MEANWHILE...TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ALOFT...LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE
NUMEROUS WAVES PIVOT AROUND IT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BIG QUESTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY SUNSET...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST OF THE ISOLATED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE KILX CWA WILL ALSO
DIMINISH. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH NEXT ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER TOWARD DAWN. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
ACCORDINGLY...TO FEATURE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-55...WITH ONLY ISOLATED EVENING WORDING ACROSS THE E/SE CWA.

BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ON SATURDAY...AS SHORT-WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z 01 JUN MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT APPROACHING...THINK COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
THAN TODAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
E/SE CWA. LEVEL OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO DEBRIS
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LATEST DAY2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES MUCH
OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE DECAYING
CONVECTION ENTERS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THEN
NEW STORMS FIRE ALONG THE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA AS THE DAY GOES ON.

BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTER THAT...POPS
WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MEANDERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS DURING THE DAYS...BUT WILL GO DRY AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN UPPER
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A ZONAL PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS
THE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIG A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN AMPLIFYING PATTERN...THINK
SLOWER WOULD BE THE WAY TO GO. WILL THEREFORE STICK CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. ALSO...A VORTICITY CENTER IS
LOCATED IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND IS EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NRN MO.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTH-EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE WILL HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITH THE STORMS THAT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE TO THE WEST...SO WILL JUST GO WITH
VCTS FOR NOW AND A SMALL TEMPO GROUP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEC
AND CMI WILL HAVE TO HAVE A VCTS NOW WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALREADY TO THE SOUTH OF THOSE TWO SITES.

THE FEATURE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SO WILL DROP
MENTION OF TS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-021130-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CORRECTED TO MENTION DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL

A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THREAT AREA WILL BE
MAINLY WEST OF I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST
NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW...THOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-021130-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST
NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW...THOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

AUTEN