Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 031822
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
122 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ILC023-029-035-045-031900-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-070403T1900Z/
CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-EDGAR-
122 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDGAR...CLARK...EASTERN CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLES COUNTIES...

AT 116 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
EAST OF DENNISON TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAZEL DELL...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE TO 16 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF TOLEDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3989 8753 3919 8836 3918 8774 3948 8754

$$

000 
WWUS53 KILX 031839
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
139 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ILC023-029-035-045-031849-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-070403T1900Z/
CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-EDGAR-
139 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDGAR...CLARK...
EASTERN CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN COLES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3989 8753 3919 8836 3918 8774 3948 8754

$$

BARKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ARE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.  MED RANGE MODELS HAVE A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP FORMING SLIGHTLY AFTER NOON...AND MOVING TO
THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA... BUT MISSING CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FOR THE MOST PART.  WILL WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE IF THIS TREND ACTUALLY
HAPPENS CONSIDERING THE ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING PRETTY WORKED OVER AS
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STORMS...MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR WATCHES AND
KNOCKING DOWN THE TEMPS A BIT IN THE FAR SE AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LIMITED BY EARLY PRECIP.  PULLED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE FA.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SQUALL LINE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS

BIG FORECAST CONCERN IS MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SE IL AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS EAST ACROSS THE STATE...COLLIDING WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE WITH CANADIAN AIR MASS USHERING INTO IL TONIGHT/WED AND
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH FREEZING TEMPS
LIKELY FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS
FAIRLY SIMILAR NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NAM/WRF MODEL ABOUT 3 HOURS SLOWER
WITH COLD FRONT THAN GFS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

08Z/3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KS
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN IL NEAR
I-80 AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL FROM I-88 NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL
IOWA...THEN A SQUALL LINE FROM CENTRAL IOWA SOUTH INTO NW CORNER OF
MO AND RACING EAST. VERY MILD TEMPS OVER CENTRAL IL WITH UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM I-72 NORTH. ALOFT A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROF WAS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS OF MT/WY AND THE
DAKOTAS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODELS TAKE LOW PRESSURE ENE INTO NW IL BY 18Z WITH COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF IL...THEN LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI AS IT DEEPENS BY
SUNSET AND SWINGS COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND APPROACHING THE IL/IN
BORDER. UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS INTENSIFY INTO A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EAST INTO MN BY SUNSET AND HELPS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPEN WITH VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND 100 KNOT
MID LEVEL JET POINTING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL BY DAYS END.
COLD FRONT COLLIDING WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 6 TO 7C AND MUCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG FROM 18 TO 21Z ALONG AND EAST OF THE IL RIVER.
HAVE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH GOOD WIND SHEAR AT 18Z AND BECOMING
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS BY 21Z. EXPECT SEVERE SQUALL LINE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z (1 TO 7 PM)
WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW
SUPERCELLS FROM PRIOR TO 21Z WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM IL RIVER
EAST. SPC HAS 45% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL (10%
CHANCE OF 2 INCH OR LARGER HAIL) AND 10% CHANCE TORNADOES IN
MODERATE RISK FROM JACKSONVILLE TO CANTON TO LACON EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM MID/LATE MORNING
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 AND CHANCE OF CONVECTION EAST LATER THIS
MORNING. LIKELY CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE PASSING THROUGH.

PROGRESSIVE SQUALL WILL EXIT EAST OF IL EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CHANCE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING EAST OF I-57. DRY SLOW
BRIEFLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING...THEN WRAP
AROUND LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL NORTH OF I-70 AND
ESPECIALLY FROM I-74 NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO WED WHERE SWIRL OF STRONG
SHORT WAVE TAIL LINGERS. WINDY NW WINDS TONIGHT/WED BEHIND STORM
SYSTEM AS LOW DEEPENS TO 993 MB OVER LAKE HURON BY DAWN WED.
INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT/WED MORNING. MUCH
COLDER TONIGHT AND WED AND CONTINUED TREND OF COOLING TEMPS A FEW
MORE DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...RANGING FROM FREEZING NW OF
THE IL RIVER TO 40F FAR SE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER. HIGHS WED IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.

SUB FREEZING TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKELY WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AVERAGE LAST SPRING FREEZE IN CENTRAL
IL IS MID APRIL SO HOLDING OFF ON FREEZE HEADLINES. BUT TEMPS HAVE
BEEN 15 TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS ALLOWING SOME
VEGETATION TO GROW VERY EARLY THIS SEASON. LAST TIME WE HAD LOWS IN
THE 20S WAS MARCH 18. TENDER VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE COVERED OR
TAKEN INDOORS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES. IL REMAINS IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH DRY AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR EARLY APRIL. MOST
OF THE QPF AND CLOUDIER SKIES STAYS NE OF IL CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RACES SE ACROSS THE OZARKS
SAT...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS MO MON...BOTH
KEEPING THEIR LIGHT QPF SW OF CENTRAL IL. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS IL EASTER SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S AGAIN FRI AND SAT
NIGHT...THEN MODIFY SUN NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 30S AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH SLIPS SE OF IL AND GET A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MON WITH
MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 40S FRI/SAT ELEVATE INTO THE 50S MON
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HJS/HUETTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-041200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF TO PRODUCE A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS AND WABASH RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK ON AREA
RIVERS...INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS AND WABASH RIVERS.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. RESIDENTS THAT ALREADY HAVE PLANTS AND
FLOWERS BLOOMING OUTSIDE SHOULD CONSIDER COVERING THEM OR
BRINGING THEM INDOORS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
939 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 AM     HAIL             CHAMPAIGN               40.11N 88.26W
04/03/2007  M0.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NEAR STALEY RD. AND BRADLEY AVE IN WEST CHAMPAIGN

&&

SCHAFFER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1027 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 AM     HAIL             OGDEN                   40.12N 87.96W
04/03/2007  M1.00 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL FELL FROM 956 AM UNTIL
            1000 AM.

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HAIL             SHERMAN                 39.89N 89.61W
04/03/2007  M0.75 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL IN SHERMAN

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             ELWIN                   39.78N 88.96W
04/03/2007  E0.88 INCH       MACON              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     HAIL             5 SW DECATUR            39.80N 89.00W
04/03/2007  M0.88 INCH       MACON              IL   MESONET

            REPORT OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS 2 MILES WEST OF THE
            INTERSECTION OF MT AUBURN RD AND WICKLES RD. REPORT FROM
            THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM

&&

KELLY