Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 220946
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
445 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007

ILC113-221015-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-070322T1015Z/
MCLEAN-
445 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY...

AT 441 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF DANVERS...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF
BLOOMINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  NORMAL.
  BLOOMINGTON.
  TOWANDA.
  HUDSON.
  HOLDER.
  COOKSVILLE.
  PLEASANT HILL.
  LEXINGTON.
  ELLSWORTH.
  COLFAX.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.


LAT...LON 4042 8849 4042 8873 4041 8874 4041 8897
      4040 8898 4039 8924 4060 8924 4071 8865
      4070 8862 4043 8847

$$

SMITH

000 
WWUS53 KILX 221010
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
508 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007

ILC113-221018-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-070322T1015Z/
MCLEAN-
508 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 507 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. REMAIN ALERT TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 4042 8849 4042 8873 4041 8874 4041 8897
      4040 8898 4039 8924 4060 8924 4071 8865
      4070 8862 4043 8847

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
323 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION TO BE SHORT AS CONVECTIVE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FA
THIS MORNING.  AND APOLOGIES FOR COMING OUT AFTER THE FORECAST.
ISSUES FOR THIS ROUND VERY SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST.  COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO FA THIS MORNING...WITH STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED THROUGH THE MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN THE CWA.  THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LEAVE A LITTLE TO BE DESIRED...ENOUGH
SHEAR IN THE AREA WILL ADD TO THE THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND MAKE WIND AND HAIL A THREAT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR
A TORNADO.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
A SFC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES IS
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND TODAY. A
RATHER SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND CONTINUED WAVES OF PRECIP PUT MUCH
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ANY OF THE
MORE EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES OUT
ALONG THE QUASI-STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...CONFINING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE WHOLE SERIES OF EVENTS STARTS ALL OVER
AGAIN...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING BACK NWD ACROSS THE STATE
AS A WARM FRONT.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HAVING A BIT OF A PROBLEM
WITH CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...I.E. HOW FAR NORTH
WILL IT GET THROUGHOUT THE WARM UP ON SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIGHTER POPS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  SUNDAY MAY SEE
A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE POPS RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND DEEPER LOW THAT
IS DIGGING OUT A TROF OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-221100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
305 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK ON
THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HAVANA TO BEARDSTOWN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...AND PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES
WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-048>057-061-221100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
305 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...AND PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
305 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WABASH RIVER BASIN OVER
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH RENEWED FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR THE EMBARRAS AND LITTLE WABASH BASINS...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT IN IOWA AND PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT PROLONGING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE THE BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCHAFFER