Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 180911
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
411 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

ILC025-049-079-159-180930-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-071018T0930Z/
CLAY-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-RICHLAND-
411 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN EFFINGHAM...JASPER...EASTERN CLAY AND RICHLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 408 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF GILA TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLAY
CITY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF TOLEDO TO 10
MILES EAST OF FLORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  YALE...
  WILLOW HILL...
  WEST LIBERTY...
  STE. MARIE...
  OLNEY...
  DUNDAS...
  CALHOUN...
  CLAREMONT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3862 8795 3865 8859 3916 8858 3916 8796
      3900 8796 3899 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0911Z 270DEG 58KT 3914 8824 3865 8824

$$

SMITH

000 
WWUS53 KILX 180929
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
429 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

ILC025-049-079-159-180939-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-071018T0930Z/
CLAY-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-RICHLAND-
429 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN EFFINGHAM...JASPER...
EASTERN CLAY AND RICHLAND COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 430 AM CDT...

AT 427 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3862 8795 3865 8859 3916 8858 3916 8796
      3900 8796 3899 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 270DEG 58KT 3914 8787 3865 8787

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
253 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

MAIN STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIALLY VOLATILE WEATHER TODAY...WITH
EASTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS 987MB LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
NUMEROUS SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SEVERAL LINES OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAIN LINE NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FAST-MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE KILX CWA BY
12Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FAR
N/E BORDERS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS STRONG DRY SLOT BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE DAY WILL
START OFF CLOUDY...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BY MID-MORNING. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND STRONG WAA...TEMPERATURES
WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH MANY AREAS TOPPING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
EXCELLENT MIXING WILL HELP PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. BASED ON CURRENT LOW-LEVEL
PROFILERS AND 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL
REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.

AS DRY LINE/COLD FRONT PROPAGATES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...LINE
OF CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PART OF THE AREA.
00Z 18 OCT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT...GFS/NGM
SUGGEST STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER AFTER
21Z. MEANWHILE...NAM-WRF DEVELOPS THE STORMS FURTHER WEST BETWEEN
THE I-55 AND I-57 CORRIDORS. DUE TO THE THE RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE
OF THE NAM-WRF...WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION MOST CLOSELY. WILL
THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO
DECATUR LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF WIND
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...AMOUNT OF LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON BEFORE STORMS CAN FORM INTO A
LINEAR STRUCTURE. STORMS SHOULD LINGER EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE FAR EAST AFTER 00Z. ONCE THE STORMS PUSH INTO INDIANA...PRECIP
WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO COVER THIS...AS LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. CLOUDY AND WINDY WEATHER IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY...AS STRONG CAA PATTERN SETS UP. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

UPPER SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON SATURDAY...REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING.
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND STRONG WAA WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS BACK
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE MODEL
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE ECMWF/CANADIAN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND
THUS SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE. AT THIS POINT...WILL FOLLOW
THE SLOWER CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
MONDAY.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE INITIAL
DEPARTING WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND WILL LIKELY BRING VSBYS INTO THE 4-6 MILE RANGE AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN COMPLEX. LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS MOVING NORTH AND SHOULD ENVELOPE THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING.

WILDCARD IS CONVECTIVE LINE OVER MISSOURI. NCEP 18Z MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL AND IT IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF
WHERE THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS LINE CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER IT CAN MAKE IT EAST INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS. 00Z RAOB FROM KILX
HAS COME IN WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 41 KTS. WILL NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICS IS IMPRESSIVE...BUT
MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE LIMITED AS DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO ILLINOIS.
AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF ILLINOIS AND THEN RACE EASTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HAVE TIMED TERMINAL FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

BARKER
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
349 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-181100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
349 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POWERFUL SPRING-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE MIDWEST
THURSDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND THE NOON
HOUR ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE FROM NOON UNTIL 300 PM.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-181100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
349 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POWERFUL SPRING-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE MIDWEST
THURSDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO
THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH AT TIMES.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND THE NOON
HOUR ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE FROM 200 PM UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
254 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MEREDOSIA               39.83N 90.56W
10/18/2007                   MORGAN             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE TOPS SHEARED OFF ALONG A 100 YARD PATH NEAR HIGHWAY
            104/67. REPORT OF A TREE LIMB THROUGH A WINDOW IN
            MEREDOSIA. POWER LINES DOWN WITH SIDING BLOWN OFF SEVERAL
            HOMES.

&&

DSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
334 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S SPRINGFIELD        39.64N 89.64W
10/18/2007                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN AT 10705N PAWNEE ROAD.

&&

DSMITH