Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WWUS51 KILN 262146
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
546 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

KYC201-262156-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-070626T2145Z/
ROBERTSON KY-
546 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROBERTSON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3850 8418 3846 8405 3849 8395 3859 8398
      3858 8414

$$

RYAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RYAN

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FCST AREA IN BTWN REMNANTS OF MID LVL DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS
AND WRN INDIANA AND A WEAK VORT PASSING THRU SE OHIO. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TSTM DVLPMNT...WITH MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION TO WEST OF REGION. ADDITIONALLY ACRS CNTRL/NRN
KY...A WEAK CONV BNDRY APPEARED TO BE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO SCT
CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. UNDER MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...TEMPS HAD WARMED
INTO U80S/L90S.

WITH EXCEPTION OF SCT CONVECTION ACRS NRN KY/SO CNTRL OH AND A FEW
ROGUE CELLS NE OF CMH METRO...MUCH OF FCST AREA REMAINS PCPN FREE
WITH MID LVL NVA SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MID LVL NVA
HOLDS ACRS REGION INTO EVNG HOURS AS WEAK VORT TO SE OF REGION
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. STRONGER VORT IN ASSOC WITH MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL STAY WEST OF REGION INTO THE EVNG...WITH MUCH OF
THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER WRN/CNTRL INDIANA LIKELY TO NOT MAKE IT
INTO FCST AREA BEFORE DYING OUT. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS (30) OVER
WRN/SRN PORTIONS FCST AREA WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE AXIS
OVER NRN KY AND POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ONGOING TSTMS OVER
INDIANA WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR WRN FCST AREA THIS EVNG. WILL
INDICATE 20 POPS ELSEWHERE FOR ISOLD SHORT-LIVED CONVECTION DVLPG
OFF OF MUCAPES INVOF 1000 J/KG. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NO APPRECIABLE FORCING
FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALIZED AREAS OF BR/HZ ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS
DAYBREAK IN HUMID AIRMASS.

TEMPS...ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT IN STORE WITH TEMPS FALLING ONLY INTO
U60S TO AROUND 70. TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUID WITH DEWPTS
EXPECTED IN M/U60S OVERNIGHT.

RYAN

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUID IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR WED/WED NIGHT. REGION
REMAINS ON NRN FRINGE OF MID LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE CONUS.
AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY MORE
ZONAL MID LVL FLO AS STRONG S/WV PASSES ACRS CANADA AND NRN GRT
LKS. REMNANTS OF DISTURBANCE NOTED BY WEAK MID LVL S/WV EMBEDDED
IN ZONAL FLO WED AFTN PASSING THRU NRN IN/OH. THIS COMBINED WITH
DVLPG LO LVL CONV AND PLENTY OF LO LVL MOISTURE WITH MUCAPES BTWN
15000-2000 J/KG SHOULD ENABLE BETTER COVERAGE TO TSTM DVLPMNT ACRS
WEST CNTRL OH FOR AFTN HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...PROXIMITY
TO MID LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP TSTMS MORE ISOLD...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH/EAST OF I-71.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACRS WESTERN GRT LKS WED WILL SAG INTO
NRN IN/OH WED NIGHT WITH MID LVL HGTS FALLING AS RIDGE BEGINS TO
DVLP OVER CNTRL/HIGH PLAINS. LO LVL CONV INCREASES ACRS NRN FCST
AREA WED NIGHT AS 30KT 850 LLJ DVLPS AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD MID/UPR LVL FORCING SHOULD ENABLE FOR AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED TO 50
POPS WED NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. ONCE AGAIN...LOWEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL RESIDE OVER SE FCST AREA...CLOSEST TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND FURTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING ASSOCD WITH
FRNTL BNDRY. BENEFICIAL HVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO BTWN 1.75-2 IN BY LATE WED NIGHT. APPEARS
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE BETTER CHANCES AT A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR FCST AREA THAT THIS REGION HAS SEEN OVER LAST FEW
MONTHS.

TEMPS...MET TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL FOR WED AFTN HIGHS...AND
THINK THIS MAY BE DUE TO NAM MODEL OVERDVLPG QPF AND CLOUDS ACRS
FCST AREA. TEMPS HAVE ENDED UP MUCH CLOSER TO MAV GUID LAST SVRL
DAYS AND EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN AGAIN ON WED. HAVE GENERALLY GONE
A DEG OR TWO BELOW MAV GUID...WITH ALL BUT NW FCST AREA LIKELY TO
GET TO 90 OR INTO L90S. CONSIDERING THAT BOTH KCVG AND KCMH HAVE
MADE IT TO 92 SO FAR TODAY...MAY END UP VERY CLOSE TO MAV GUID
TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUDS ANY WDLY SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS ALONG
I-71 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEG WED NIGHT.

RYAN

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE...HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUDS/RAINFALL TIMING...WITH A
PROMINENT NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE.

THE PCPN ENDS QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
INDIANA EARLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING A BIT IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BNDRY. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS BROAD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION.  SLIGHT COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS NORTH INTO NRN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL TRIGGER MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE FCST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID LVL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS IN MIST MAY FORM AT THE TYPICAL TAF SITES OF KLUK...KILN
AND KLCK. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SAME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-270915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
435 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.