Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
503 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING WINDY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIN CONVECTIVE LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN ZONES.
EXPECT THIS LINE TO MIX DOWN STRONG WINDS AS IT QUICKLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CAREFULLY
BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT AS A SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THAT
WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE INITIAL SURGE WITH
THE FRONT BUT SHOULD STILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

AFTER A MILD START TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. READINGS SHOULD THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP AFTER DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY BUT THEY WILL
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD POOL ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON CHRISTMAS.

UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ON MONDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEAKENING. SO THE
FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING. THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LOW INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT FOLLOWS
WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY ON SATURDAY. THUS EXPECT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WSW WINDS WERE GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 4 HOURS.  MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY
13Z...THEN KCMH AND KLCK BY 16Z. W/WSW WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 40 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS CIGS BECOME VFR...LESSENING TO GUSTS BELOW 30
KTS BY 23Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
457 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-241000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
457 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALL DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ042-060-070-231100-
WAYNE IN-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-BUTLER OH-DARKE OH-PREBLE OH-
501 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

...A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
WESTERN PREBLE...EXTREME WESTERN DARKE...NORTHWESTERN
BUTLER...FRANKLIN...UNION...FAYETTE AND WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 600
AM EST...

AT 459 AM EST...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 16 MILES WEST OF FRANKLIN TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GLENWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
ANDERSONVILLE...BUENA VISTA...HAMBURG...FALMOUTH...GLENWOOD...
PEPPERTOWN...BENTONVILLE...COLUMBIA...LAUREL...METAMORA...ALPINE AND
BUNKER HILL.

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