Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THESE
DISTURBANCES...COMBINED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT MCS
WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BNDRY NOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
INDIANA...WERE DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE SW FCST AREA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS ALSO BLOSSOMING ACROSS SE OHIO AN NE KY...WITH THE
STORMS GENERALLY PROGRESSING NE.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE PCPN WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO NW OHIO LATE. LOWS WILL MOSTLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
VIRTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
MANY DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY.
NUMEROUS/SCT STORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.
HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE NOTE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND THE DEEP CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IT DEPICTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR. EXPECT A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
INSTEAD. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT REST OF LONG TERM TO BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ARE PROGGED TO PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM HPC GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY WHEN FORECAST
IS ABOUT 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN HPC...CLOSER TO THE 00Z MEX.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER TIMING THESE STORMS AT THE TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY INTEND TO LIMIT
TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THUNDER TO A FEW HOURS AROUND THE MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIOD AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WILL ONLY USE CB
DESIGNATOR AT THAT POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

OHZ073-074-171900-
ROSS OH-HOCKING OH-
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING AND EASTERN
ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR MOORESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
LONDONDERRY...HOCKING HILLS STATE PARK AND SOUTH BLOOMINGVILLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

KYZ100-171915-
LEWIS KY-
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM EDT...

AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HARRIS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
HARRIS...CAMP DIX AND HEAD OF GRASSY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

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