Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. WITH SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES
SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND WITH MODELS INDICATING
MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS GOOD TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE OVER KENTUCKY LATER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE ILN CWA. SREF
AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD. NAM SEEMED TO FIT THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TUES
WITH THE GFS BECOMING THE BETTER FIT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A GFS/NAM BLEND SEEMED TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO KY TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END. FORECAST
SOLUTION JUST NOTED HAS OUR NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ENTIRE
AREA DUE TO GENERAL UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

USED MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS MOST PERIODS EXPECT WHERE GFS THE
FAVORED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING MID LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD
IN...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW GREAT OF A CHANCE OF PCPN WE WILL HAVE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A 20 POP FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
HEIGHTS...WILL ALSO TREND TEMP FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT
IS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTNDG ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA THIS MRNG SW INTO
CNTRL INDIANA/ILLINOIS. WDLY SCT -SHRA MOVING ACRS EASTERN INDIANA
AND WESTERN OHIO IN WEAK LO LVL CONV ZONE JUST AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY.
APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KDAY AND NORTH OF KCVG
AND KLUK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF SCT PCPN CAN HOLD TOGETHER
THOUGH...IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT KILN BY 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CB MENTION RIGHT FROM 12Z AS A RESULT.

COMBINATION OF POOLING LO LVL MOISTURE (EVIDENCED BY M60S DEWPTS)
AHEAD OF BNDRY AND 1000-1500 MLCAPES DVLPG BY ERLY AFTN AS A
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA FOR AFTN/EVNG HOURS. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS
INDCG LO LVL CONV AXIS SETTING UP ACRS SRN FCST AREA DURING AFTN
HOURS. HOWEVER...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPR LVL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP TSTMS WDLY SCT. HAVE INSERTED CB MENTION FOR KCVG/KLUK/KILN
FOR DURATION OF THE AFTN AS BNDRY DROPS THRU SRN OH. WEAK SFC HI
PRES BUILDS IN BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. DECREASING CLOUDS
AND LGT WINDS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED BR DVLPMNT AFT
MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PCPN LATER
TODAY. HAVE INSERTED MVFR VSBYS AT KCVG/KLUK/KILN AFT MIDNIGHT.
A FEW CI MAY AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS A MID LVL
S/WV PASSES TO THE NORTH THRU THE GRT LKS...BUT HAVE LEFT SKIES
MSTLY CLR FOR THE TIME BEING AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RYAN

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
512 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-161000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
512 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-161000-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
512 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
102 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

KYZ091>093-OHZ070-077-078-151745-
BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-KENTON KY-CLERMONT OH-HAMILTON OH-BUTLER OH-
102 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BUTLER...HAMILTON...
WESTERN CLERMONT...NORTHERN KENTON...NORTHERN CAMPBELL AND
NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR GRANDVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROSS...
MACK NORTH...MACK SOUTH...DENT...CINCINNATI-NORTHERN KENTUCKY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BRIDGETOWN NORTH...COVEDALE...WHITE OAK
WEST...CONSTANCE...WHITE OAK...CHEVIOT AND NORTHGATE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO
PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
124 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W CINCINNATI          39.14N 84.56W
07/15/2007  E58 MPH          HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0115 PM     HAIL             CINCINNATI              39.14N 84.51W
07/15/2007  E0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&