Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WWUS51 KILN 150023
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
819 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

OHC091-159-150029-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T0030Z/
UNION OH-LOGAN OH-
821 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN UNION COUNTY IN
CENTRAL OHIO...AND EASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SPOTTERS REPORTED HAIL WITH THIS STORM NEAR BELLEFONTAINE EARLIER 
WITH THIS STORM. THE SIZE WAS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. 

LAT...LON 4044 8382 4030 8376 4036 8323 4053 8333

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES EXISTS ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A MOIST SWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EMBEDDED S/W
SET OFF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND LEFT A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WHICH INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT FOR A PERIOD TDA. MODIFIED ILN SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNCAPPED. EXPECT TSTMS OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO ILN/S SRN FA
WITH SB CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
IS LESS FAVORABLE ACRS SRN OHIO ATTM AND THEREFORE...EXPECT A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO ILN/S SRN
PERIPHERY...A FEW ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WL BE PSBL WITH HAIL AND
PERHAPS MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS...WITH WBZ
VALUES AROUND 8 KFT AND MAX DELTA THETA-E VALUES AROUND 14 DEG K.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS SE CARVING OUT A TROF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH INTO NRN OH EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CENTRAL OHIO BY 06Z AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MODEL TRENDS A LTL FASTER WITH THIS TIMING AND SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS
SOLN WAS FOLLOWED. STRONGER BAND OF MID LEVEL WINDS ACRS THE NORTH
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...
EXPECT STORMS TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED ACRS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.
BEST CHC FOR SEVERE APPEARS ACRS THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FA
THIS EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN
WL BE PSBL WITH STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED.

8H CONVERGENCE LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING ON THURSDAY. IN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT A MIX WITH SNOW WL BE
PSBL ACRS THE NORTH THURSDAY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE FRONT OVER THE TN VLY WITH
AN INVERTED TROF INTO EASTERN OH LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THEREFORE
HAVE CONTD PRECIP CHC/S ACRS THE EAST.

TEMP WISE...HAVE CLOSED DIURNAL RANGES A BIT WITH NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPS COLDER
CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST FLANK OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY FALL AS
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEXT
WEDNESDAY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BEFORE REBOUNDING TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG TERM. GENERALLY ADJUSTED HPC GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
UPWARD...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE FORECAST WHEN WARM ADVECTION IS
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
LATEST 88D SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
SW PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CATEGORIZED AS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE (650 J/KG) WITH NO CAP. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA
OF CONVECTION OBSERVED MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY AND INTO SW IN.
THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE KCVG AND KLUK SITES AROUND 20Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA WITH THIS CONVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. BUT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION...BEGINNING FIRST ACROSS THE NORTHER TAF
SITES...THEN MOVING SSE. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. ALSO EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
409 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-151000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
409 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH RAIN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LOWLAND FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-151000-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
409 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RYAN