Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
949 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD SATURDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG CONVECTION IN PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. ALL EFFORTS NOW CONCENTRATED ON THIS EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT IN THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED. NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS LOOK SIMILAR THOUGH GFS DOES APPEAR
TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT FEEDBACK ISSUES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BECAUSE
OF THIS HAVE FAVORED THE NAM SOLUTION...THOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS
SMALL. FRONT WILL NOT BE QUICK TO MOVE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MEANS THAT SOME ILM CONTINUES WILL
REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT ITS TIMING IS NOT
THE BEST AND THE AIR COLUMN WILL ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF DRYING
OUT WHEN IT ARRIVES. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.

LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF KEEPS THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
BY WEDNESDAY AS DOES THE UKMET AND GFS. IN THE MEANTIME THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A DEEP 560 DAM CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW. UKMET IS
STRONGER WITH THE PACIFIC NW LOW AFT F+60...00Z MON USING THE 10/12Z
RUN...WITH A CLOSED 559 DAM CONTOUR COMPARED TO THE OPEN WAVE
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS AT THIS TIME. THE UKMET IS TRENDING DEEPER
WITH FEATURE COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN BY 40 METERS AND PUSHES IT
CLOSER TO THE BC COAST AND FURTHER NORTH FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND DEEPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH A
BIT ALLOWING IMPULSES TO DROP SEWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NE AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES INCREASING THE POSSIBILITIES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD WILL
WAIT AND SEE THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
SIMILAR BUT RETROGRADES THE PACIFIC NW LOW SWWD STRENGTHENS THE H5
RIDGE ACROSS THE US RETROGRADING IT BACK TO THE SW US. HAVE GONE
WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST CUT OF THE TEMPS AND TWEAKED
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO... NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL BE THAT
HIGH NEXT WEEK. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX OF STORMS DROPPING SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
CWA...WITH A TEMPO GROUP A GOOD BET FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN
THE ILM TAF. LBT WILL BE ON THE WEAK WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS...WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL. REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER
TO AFFECT THE MYRTLES...THINK THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IF AT ALL...BY THE TIME THEY DROP INTO SC. HAZE AND FOG
WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT...LOWEST VISIBILITIES LIKELY NEAR THE
COAST AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST PRECIP. FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO FIRE SCATTERED CONVECTION...BEST
CHANCE SOUTH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. PINCHED GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS END OF
PERIOD AS FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA AS PERIOD BEGINS. BECAUSE FRONT
IS WEAKENING ITS EXACT POSITION IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY DIRECTION WILL BE S/SE WITH SPEEDS 15 TO
20 KT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NE AND WEAKEN TO
10 TO 15 KT. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
INITIALLY RUN 3 TO 5 FT BUT FALL TO 3 TO 4 FT SHORTLY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS OVER 20 KT AND SEAS
APPROACHING 6 FT AS SURFACE WAVES FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DO NOT
THINK SCA WILL BE NEEDED AND CAN PROBABLY BE HANDLED WITH SCEC.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FRONT WILL END UP STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 KT WITH GRADIENT RELAXING AS FRONT
DISSIPATES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET ON MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WITH NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATER AREA AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT
FROM LITTLE RIVER ON SOUTH. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
WINDS AND WAVES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITERIA
WITH WAVES RUNNING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET AND WINDS NORTHEAST AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AVERAGING LESS
THAN 7 KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ032>034-
     039-046.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ099-100.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

NCZ100-112330-
BRUNSWICK-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-112330-
ROBESON-BLADEN-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

   NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ034-046-112330-
HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ097-101-112330-
PENDER-NEW HANOVER-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ032-033-039-112330-
FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-112330-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

   NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ017-023-024-112330-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

   NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ099-112330-
COLUMBUS-
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
826 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-110130-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...BURGAW...
SURF CITY...WHITEVILLE...LELAND...SHALLOTTE...WILMINGTON...
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
826 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM...

AT 825 PM...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TOPSAIL
BEACH...WEST TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS LINE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH AND WILL MOVE INTO HAMPSTEAD AND BURGAW BY 835 PM...AND
WILL BE NEAR WILMINGTON AND EAST ARCADIA BY 915 PM. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. DO NOT STAND BY
WINDOWS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
845 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNW ELIZABETHTOWN     34.73N 78.66W
08/10/2007                   BLADEN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR WHITE OAK. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A CHURCH.
            TREE DOWN NORTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN.

&&

LOEWENTH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

NCZ087-096-099>101-110315-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...LELAND...SHALLOTTE...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
958 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MARCHING SOUTH...

AT 955 PM...RADAR INDICATED STRONG STORMS FROM NEAR FAIR
BLUFF...WHITEVILLE...AND WESTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. THE STORMS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH AND WILL CONTAIN WIND GUST TO 50 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO NICHOLS...TABOR CITY AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES BY 1030 PM TO 1045 PM. OTHER STORMS WERE
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NEW HANOVER AND SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT AS STRONG...BUT WILL STILL HAVE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

43

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