Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PLENTY OF SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY PER MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH HIGH
CAPE VALUES SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSTMS ESPECIALLY
WHERE THERE ARE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. CONVECTION WILL WIND-DOWN
LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS OVERNIGHT...
OTHERWISE FOLLOWED MET NUMBERS FOR THE MIN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AT THE SURFACE
WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT. LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
BUT WILL DO WITHOUT ANY POPS ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS THE
STRONGEST THEN. MAV STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MET WITH
INLAND MAX TEMPS AND I WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA IN THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.  BY THURSDAY
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF AFTN CONVECTION SLIGHTLY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCP COMES WITH A COLD FRONT BY THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THIS COLD FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF PCP
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL PERSIST AROUND 70 FOR MINS AND NEAR 90 FOR MAXS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
COOL IN RESPONSE TO CLOUD COVER AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
GOOD CAPES...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING. LIKEWISE WESTERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WENT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FOG TONIGHT. THINK WE WILL SEE IFR/LIFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS...DISSIPATING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING AS A
RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE. WAVES WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE. BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THIS
BENIGN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS START INCREASING ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
FORECASTING UP TO 5 FT IN OFF SHORE WATERS BY FRI AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-251330-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
930 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...MINOR FLOODING ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-251330-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
930 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

29

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1251 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

NCZ100-241745-
BRUNSWICK-
1251 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST BRUNSWICK COUNTY...

AT 1250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM BOILING SPRINGS TO SOUTHPORT. THIS
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING VERY LITTLE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WINDS
GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM DISSIPATES. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

SRP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

NCZ100-241830-
BRUNSWICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LELAND...SHALLOTTE
120 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST BRUNSWICK COUNTY...

AT 115 PM EDT...AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM BOILING SPRING LAKES TO THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF SOUTHPORT. SOME LOCATIONS NEAR BOILING SPRING LAKES HAVE
RECEIVED AN ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HOUR.

THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE SAME AREAS THROUGH 2
PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL ALONG HIGHWAY 211 NORTH AND WEST
OF SOUTHPORT...CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. OTHER
ROADWAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 87 AND
133.

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

NCZ096-097-242000-
BLADEN-PENDER-
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

AT 300 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE...BETWEEN LONG
CREEK...POINT CASWELL AND ROWAN MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY INTO FAR
EASTERN BLADEN COUNTY...MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREADING ACROSS PENDER COUNNTY AND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BLADEN COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...WINDS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ASHTON...BURGAW...
CURRIE...LONG CREEK...MALPASS CORNER...MONTAGUE...POINT CASWELL...
ROOKS...ROWAN...THE BOROUGH...WARDS CORNER AND ATKINSON.

&&
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

RGZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

NCZ099-100-SCZ034-242015-
COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-HORRY-
314 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF HORRY BRUNSWICK AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DRIFTING WEST FROM
GRISSETTOWN AND LONGWOOD AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLUMBUS COUNTY
SOUTHWEST OF PIREWAY AND HORRY COUNTY FROM LONGS TO NORTH MYRTLE
BEACH. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS THUNDERSTORM MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

STAY INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SRP

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