Wind Advisory 25, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS73 KICT 211536
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007


KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100-211645-
/O.CAN.KICT.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-071021T1800Z/
CHASE-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-
CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTTONWOOD FALLS...EL DORADO...
AUGUSTA...EUREKA...YATES CENTER...IOLA...WINFIELD...
ARKANSAS CITY...HOWARD...FREDONIA...CHANUTE...ERIE...SEDAN...
COFFEYVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...PARSONS
1036 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

$$

HOWERTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF SUITE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF VALID PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE
LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN HLC AND GLD AT 04Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTH WINDS HOWLING THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AREA PROFILER NET AND 88D-VAD WINDS
SHOWED 60 TO 70 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 3-4K FT OFF THE GROUND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. DESPITE BRISK/GUSTY NEAR SURFACE
FLOW...THIS WOULD SUGGEST WE ARE PROBABLY MEETING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CRITERIA WITHIN 2K FT OF THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE THIS
MENTION IN ALL TAF SITES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
CLOSE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR BREAK DOWN/LESSENING OF WIND WITH
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE IN FORECAST VALID
PERIOD...WHEN POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE/LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LOWER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS STRONGER LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS/OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WIND SHEAR
WITHIN THE LOWEST 2K FT THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS FOR FIRST HALF OF VALID PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH NEAR
SURFACE FLOW THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECOUPLING TO
INCREASE WIND SHEAR. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR ALL NIGHT
AT KCNU AND MAINLY POST MIDNIGHT FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AS FRONT GETS
CLOSER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST VALID PERIOD ALL SITES.
FROPA JUST BEFORE DAWN IN CENTRAL KANSAS...AND LATE MORNING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRONT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KRSL LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH HAVE PRECLUDED MENTION FOR NOW.

KED

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TIMING OF FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MOVEMENT
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOW THAT MOVEMENT
IMPACTS CLOUDINESS... PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT - SUNDAY:
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW UP SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. MODEL
PREFERENCE FOR FRONTAL TIMING IS THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST AND SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONDITIONS
BETTER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
00Z MONDAY. WITH COOLER AIR STREAMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY... NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT IS A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING BUT
PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S WITH
LITTLE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS. MOST... IF NOT ALL...
OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE POST FRONTAL AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVE THROUGH AND THE AREA MOVES UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE UPPER JET.

MONDAY - TUESDAY:
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY EVENING AND
ONLY GETS WORSE WITH TIME WITH REGARDS TO HOW IT HANDLE THE UPPER
LOW. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE NEARLY 120 METERS. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
BUT IT INITIALLY PROGRESSES THE WAVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEFORE WAFFLING IT BACK WEST. THE INITIAL PREFERENCE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WAS TO FAVOR THE GFS BUT AS STATED EARLIER THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE SYSTEM BETTER AND THE NAM PROGRESSES THE
WAVE... WITHOUT CUTTING IT OFF... TO THE EAST. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM WHICH MEANS DECREASING POPS AND
CLOUDS QUICKER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY FURTHER
WEST... FASTER. IN REALITY... THE FORECAST DEPICTS A COMPROMISE OF
THE GFS AND NAM. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
LOW.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY:
WITH SUCH LITTLE CERTAINTY IN HOW THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL PLAY OUT VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HANG ONTO THE CUTOFF LOW AND MEANDER IT THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT IS TO CONTINUE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM COOLER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TO WARMER IN CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE ALSO KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY DUE
TOO UNCERTAINTY BUT EVEN IF THE UPPER LOW DOES CUT OFF IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO FAR EAST TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS.

CDB

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AT MOST SITES MOST IF NOT ALL NIGHT UNTIL JUST PRIOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
KRSL...HOWEVER OPTED TO ONLY GO SCT015 BKN040 FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITY. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  68  43  54 /   0  20  70  30
HUTCHINSON      58  61  43  54 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          61  65  42  53 /   0  20  70  40
ELDORADO        62  68  42  53 /   0  20  70  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  69  43  56 /   0  20  70  40
RUSSELL         52  53  41  55 /  10  30  40  20
GREAT BEND      53  55  40  55 /  10  30  50  20
SALINA          57  58  41  53 /  10  30  60  30
MCPHERSON       58  59  42  53 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  76  47  54 /   0  10  60  60
CHANUTE         61  75  45  52 /   0  10  60  60
IOLA            61  74  45  52 /   0  10  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  76  47  53 /   0  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
841 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-220245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
841 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/CDB