Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU
ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WELL-DEFINED NE-SW
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT IN THIS REGION. SO CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS
WITH TSRA IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT CNU...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
WHEN THOSE TEMPOS WERE USED. MVFR CIGS QUITE PLAUSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY CONVECTION...AND ALSO ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007/

UPDATE...
SENDING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS.
AS OF 16Z...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SALINA TO JUST WEST OF
HUTCHINSON...TO BETWEEN MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT. CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. RUC40
SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MUCAPES OF 2000 TO 3500 J/KG POSSIBLE. WITH 40-45 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SOME MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD AUGMENT HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL. RUC40/NAM-WRF
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CAPE MAY EXIST ALONG NE-SW ORIENTED
FRONT SUCH THAT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. 0-1KM SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS INCREASE THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST/NORTHEAST SUPERCELLS CAN
MAKE IT COMING OUT OF SW KS/NW OK...AS THEY WILL HAVE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD WITH CONVERGENCE DRAMATICALLY INCREASING IN VICINTY OF
850 FRONT.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007/

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS TODAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TSRA CHANCES INCREASE AS DAY PROGRESSES WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
VCTS AFTER 22Z.  COULD ALSO SEE SOME +TSRA AT HUT AND ICT AS
CONVECTION ORGANIZES THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CHANCES
TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL SOON AND
PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR
AND ML CAPE VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELLS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A THREAT AS WELL FOR TONIGHT...WITH
CENTRAL KANSAS /AND SOME OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ BECOMING THE FOCUS
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING. FN CONVERGENCE
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FLOW IS PERSISTENTLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT. WITH LOCATION OF CONVECTION/HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED
TONIGHT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
KANSAS AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
THURSDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR THURSDAY AT
THIS POINT...BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT A POTENTIAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ONCE THIS RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S SHOULD BE A NICE BREAK FOR
THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AND
THERE IS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
THE FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO COME BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PROLONGED AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME
FRAME AS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS OF WEATHER COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOP/OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING CLEAR EVIDENCE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LINCOLN TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY. THIS BOUNDARY WAS CONTINUING TO IGNITE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL BE THE KEY ON
WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE KEPT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE RUSSELL AND SALINA TAF SITES FOR
NOW. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS HUTCHINSON
TOWARDS 10Z...BUT WE MAY JUST PLAY THE VICINITY ROUTE FOR NOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
RUSSELL WHERE THEY MAY BECOME VFR.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  59  72  53 /  50  70  60  10
HUTCHINSON      79  54  72  51 /  80  80  50  10
NEWTON          80  56  72  52 /  70  80  60  10
ELDORADO        82  57  72  52 /  30  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  59  73  56 /  20  70  70  20
RUSSELL         71  50  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      72  51  70  51 /  80  80  20  10
SALINA          76  53  72  51 /  80  80  50  10
MCPHERSON       79  53  72  51 /  80  80  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  63  76  58 /  20  30  70  20
CHANUTE         82  61  74  55 /  20  40  70  20
IOLA            82  60  74  54 /  30  40  70  10
PARSONS-KPPF    82  62  75  57 /  20  40  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241800-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO ANTHONY. WITHIN THIS MODERATE
RISK AREA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO...VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALL SIZE...AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO 80 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON THE RISK AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC...RETRANSMISSION ONLY WITH NO CORRECTIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ067-231715-
RENO-
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWEST RENO COUNTY...

AT 1136 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ZENITH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BOWMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             N MARQUETTE             38.56N 97.83W
05/23/2007  E0.25 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ049-051-231730-
MCPHERSON-SALINE-
1157 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN MCPHERSON AND SALINE COUNTIES...

AT 1155 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINDSBORG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BOWMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 PM     HAIL             2 W ASSARIA             38.68N 97.64W
05/23/2007  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

CWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HAIL             2 N PLEVNA              38.00N 98.31W
05/23/2007  E0.75 INCH       RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ049-231815-
SALINE-
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SALINE COUNTY...

AT 1240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GYPSUM...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SALINA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BOWMAN