Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS53 KICT 050839
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSC169-050915-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070505T0915Z/
SALINE KS-
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN SALINE
COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 333 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
SALINA...TO SALINA AIRPORT...TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SMOLAN...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR SALINA BY 345 AM CDT.
  NEAR ASSARIA BY 345 AM CDT.
  NEAR NEW CAMBRIA BY 350 AM CDT.
  NEAR GYPSUM BY 405 AM CDT.

THE TOWN OF BRIDGEPORT IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3896 9769 3860 9776 3860 9750 3860 9737
      3896 9736

$$

KLEINSASSER

000 
WWUS53 KICT 050907
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSC169-050917-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070505T0915Z/
SALINE KS-
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SALINE COUNTY WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 403 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE RISK TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3896 9769 3860 9776 3860 9750 3860 9737
      3896 9736

$$

KRC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
900 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

.MESO UPDATE...
SUPERCELLS (LEFT AND RIGHT MOVERS) CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP
NORTHEAST...WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUPERCELLS WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST AS THEY
MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD POSE A CONTINUED
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...MAINLY WITH
RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007/

MESO UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH ISSUED UNTIL 2 AM FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-135...NOT
INCLUDING WICHITA. CURRENTLY MONITORING TWO SUPERCELLS (RIGHT AND
LEFT MOVERS) PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...THAT ARE NOW PROGRESSING WELL AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE.
GIVEN WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AMONGST VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...DONT SEE ANY REASON FOR THESE CELLS TO NOT CONTINUE
PROGRESSING NORTHEAST AS THEY ENCOUNTER RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 9-10PM. ADDITIONALLY...MAY STILL SEE DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING FROM ROUGHLY HILL CITY THROUGH HAYS/RUSSELL AND GREAT
BEND. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY AS
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A RETREATING DRY LINE...BUT THEY
ARENT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. REGARDLESS...INCREASING DEEP AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 7-10 PM DUE TO BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT
THROUGH 10 PM WITH ANY STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

KLEINSASSER

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. STILL TOO FAR
AWAY TO REALLY TIME OUT EXACTLY...HENCE VCTS WORDING FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATING IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
ONCE AGAIN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AS DIURNAL COOLING SETS
IN. HOWEVER...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS MUCH STRONGER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
WILL MAKE TIMELY AMENDMENTS IF/WHEN NECESSARY.

KLEINSASSER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WHERE THE FOCUS
OF CONVECTION WILL BE TONIGHT AND WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SEVERAL FOCUS
MECHANISMS THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST ONE IS JUST NOW GOING THROUGH WICHITA WITH THE
FLOW TURNING TO THE EAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH A RIPE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...BUT WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 80-100J/KG OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE SECOND OBVIOUS FOCUS MECHANISM IS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. THIS AREA MAY END UP BEING THE
MOST ORGANIZED TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILER DATA IS
ALSO SHOWING ABOUT 70-80KT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS ALSO SHOWING THE DRY LINE
BECOMING VERY WELL DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS AREA IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
DIFFLUENCE...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WE
WILL HAVE WATCH THIS AREA THIS EVENING...BECAUSE ANY RIGHT MOVERS
WOULD AFFECT CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS
TONIGHT SINCE THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE SOME MORE STRATOCUMULUS
REDEVELOPING DUE TO A GOOD STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE MORNING IN CENTRAL
KANSAS DUE TO SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30KTS WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MOST OF US TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE ARE NOT
TOO KEEN ON CONVECTION CHANCES OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THERE IS REALLY NO FOCUS MECHANISM TO KEY ON IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...WE
MAY HAVE TO WATCH WHEN THE CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE DRY LINE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVES.
RIGHT NOW...WE BELIEVE THAT ANY OF THE SUPERCELL STORMS THAT GET
GOING ALONG THE DRY LINE MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER AND MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS TIME GETS CLOSER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:
THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TAKES PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SETTING UP
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
AREAS OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY THE
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ARE ADVERTISING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT OUR
CONVECTION CHANCES. WE HAVE KEPT OUR POPS ON THE CHANCE SIDE TO
REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE HANG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES
AND KEPT OUR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
MAY GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE RAIN.

AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE NEAR HAYS AND DODGE CITY...AND THESE STORMS WOULD
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD. THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT KRSL AND KGBD
THIS EVENING...WHILE OTHER SITES REMAIN DRY.

CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR TONIGHT TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
A STRONG JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  84  66  79 /  20  20  50  50
HUTCHINSON      67  84  65  77 /  30  20  60  50
NEWTON          67  84  66  79 /  20  10  50  50
ELDORADO        67  84  67  80 /  20  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  85  67  80 /  20  10  40  40
RUSSELL         67  84  65  76 /  40  40  70  60
GREAT BEND      67  84  65  77 /  40  30  70  60
SALINA          67  84  65  78 /  30  20  70  50
MCPHERSON       67  84  66  77 /  30  20  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     67  85  68  83 /  10  10  30  40
CHANUTE         67  84  68  82 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            67  83  68  82 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    67  85  68  83 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
814 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-060215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
814 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING HILLSBORO TO EL DORADO TO ARKANSAS CITY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. IF THESE STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE AREA THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM...GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HILLSBORO TO EL DORADO TO ARKANSAS
CITY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC/MBS/REC/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
209 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 AM     TORNADO          CLAFLIN                 38.52N 98.54W
05/05/2007                   BARTON             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KAKE NEWS REPORTED STRUCTURE DAMAGE AT K4 HWY AND MAIN.
            K4 IS CLOSED AT THIS TIME.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
224 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 AM     TORNADO          5 NE GREAT BEND         38.41N 98.74W
05/05/2007                   BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HIS ROOF TAKEN OFF HIS HOME. LARGE TREES
            AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N GENESEO             38.57N 98.15W
05/05/2007                   ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER REPORTING A POSSIBLE FUNNEL.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
241 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TORNADO          CLAFLIN                 38.52N 98.54W
05/05/2007                   BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO LARGE GRAIN ELEVATORS 40 FEET TALL BLOWN OVER AND
            SMASHED AGINST FRONT OF BUILDING.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
249 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE ELLSWORTH         38.70N 98.15W
05/05/2007  E60 MPH          ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 S GENESEO             38.46N 98.15W
05/05/2007  E60 MPH          RICE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

BRW