Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT:
MCV FROM LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MCV...AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON TUESDAY MORNING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND
3000 TO 4000 J/KG...WITH VERY LITTLE CIN IN MUCH OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY RETURNS BY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH SOME QG
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS...DECIDED TO ADD SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK
REASONABLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. FORECAST THEN LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME...SO IF ANYTHING ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

SCHRECK

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THE TAFS.  MVFR CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST KS AND
CONVECTION CHANCES IN SOUTH CEN AND CEN KS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.  AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THE MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE. SO WILL SLOWLY BREAK THIS OUT AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH CEILINGS BECOMIG VFR.  NEXT CONCERN WILL
BE THE INSERTION OF VCTS FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KSRL AND KSLN TAF SITES
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FOR THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  88  69  85 /  90  30  30  10
HUTCHINSON      70  88  67  85 /  90  30  20  10
NEWTON          70  88  68  84 /  90  30  20  10
ELDORADO        70  88  69  84 /  90  40  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  89  70  85 /  90  50  40  10
RUSSELL         67  88  63  84 /  40  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  88  65  84 /  50  20  20  10
SALINA          70  89  66  85 /  80  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       69  88  67  84 /  90  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  89  69  84 /  80  50  50  10
CHANUTE         71  89  68  83 /  80  50  40  10
IOLA            71  89  67  83 /  80  50  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  89  69  84 /  80  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
412 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
412 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL KANSAS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING IS APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK

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