Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN A
DRYING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT:
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AT
THIS TIME.  IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO KS.
THESE WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS KS WITH SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING TO FESTER ALONG THE 850/700H
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CEN KS.  TSRA ALSO
IS MOVING INTO A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS AREA CONTINUES TO RECOVER FROM LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. WILL SEE THIS CONVECTION CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS 300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE.

SOME CONVECTION ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AS THIS AREA RECOVERS ENOUGH FOR REDEVELOPMENT.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AS 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
MARGINAL...BUT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A SERIES OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THIS AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN INSTABILITY.
SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING UNTIL 06Z/SAT FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KS TURNPIKE...AS THIS AREA RECEIVED
QUITE A BIT OF OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.

SAT:
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS ON SAT.  THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR SAT WITH THE REST OF THE REGION SEEING A
DRYING TREND. CAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BUT
LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD FORCING WILL PROBABLY LIMIT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CHANCE...WITH WEAK IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW HELPING
TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.  SO WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS...WITH DIMINISHING POPS BACK
TOWARDS THE TURNPIKE.

SUN-MON:
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY PULLS TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA (IN THE GREAT LAKES) FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL TURN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE
AREA...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO OK/TX.

TUE:
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN IMPULSES ON
TUE...WITH ONE MOVING ACROSS SWRN KS AND LIFT INCREASING IN NERN KS
WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE.  SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
MAIN STORY FOR THIS DAY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND AS 850H TEMPS
CLIMB TO +20 IN CEN KS. WILL RAISE TEMPS SOME IN CEN KS WITH THIS IN
MIND.

WED:
NW FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ROCKIES FOR EARLY WED.  INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS BY WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CONVECTION CHANCES FOR WED AFTN/EVE AS SOME DEVELOPMENT TRYS TO GET
GOING ALONG THE DRYLINE. WARM MID LAYER CAPPING TEMPS MAY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION FROM FIRING...BUT AT LEAST WORTH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW FIRST IN CEN KS AND THEN EVERYWHERE BY WED NIGHT.
850H TEMPS AND FAVORABLE THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT TEMPS COULD
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S IN CEN KS...SO WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP SOME AS
WELL.

THU-FRI:
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK WILL EVOLVE AS
ECM...GFS AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO WANDER INTO THE AREA FOR THU INTO FRI. CONSENSUS FOR NOW
IS TO INSERT A SLIGHT POP WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT. COULD ALSO SEE TEMPS ACROSS SRN KS (SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY) REACHING THE LOW 90S...BUT LEAVE THE UPPER 80S IN THERE
FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THINKING ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR CENTRAL KS AROUND
00Z...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST KS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO MVFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD
PROLONGED CIGS BELOW 2000 FT AGL.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  81  61  84 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  82  60  83 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          60  81  60  83 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        62  80  60  83 /  50  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  81  61  84 /  50  40  10  10
RUSSELL         55  81  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  81  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  81  59  83 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  81  60  83 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  80  61  83 /  60  50  10  10
CHANUTE         63  80  61  82 /  60  40  10  10
IOLA            63  80  61  82 /  50  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  80  61  82 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021815-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
430 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
EMPORIA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
MORE FLOODING CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM EMPORIA TO
WICHITA TO WELLINGTON. ADDITIONALLY...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

MBS/ADK/KETCHAM

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