Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS83 KICT 062355
RFWICT

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100-070100-
/O.EXP.KICT.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070307T0000Z/
CHASE-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-
CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
555 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF RESULTING IN HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG WORDING FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9-10 AM...AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG/LOW CIGS DID END UP MATERIALIZING AFTER ALL ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FOG/LOW
CIGS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND 9 AM...AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. ONLY THE RUSSELL AIRPORT AND POSSIBLY THE
GREAT BEND AIRPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED.

ADK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2007/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-WEDNESDAY:
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODIFIED POLAR FRONT AS OF 08Z EXTENDS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. FRONT
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW ACCORDING TO 500 METER AGL REGIONAL WIND
PROFILERS. NAM-WRF/GFS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL MIX NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF
DROPPING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT. HIGHS TRICKY UP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES AND SHOOTING FOR UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 THERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF BOUNDARY THIS PM...SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL-MIXED FROM SURFACE TO
850 MB. HIGHS UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LOOK ON TARGET. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY AT 15-20 MPH AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20-25%...FIRE DANGER LOOKS ELEVATED BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE WELL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA ESPECIALLY SINCE
OUR SOUTHWEST 6 COUNTIES DO NOT MEET DRY FUEL STATUS. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES...THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
REACHING THE RED RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER...MORE SEASONAL AIR INTO OUR
AREA FOR TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY ZONAL WEST TO EAST
UPPER PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH COULD PROVE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR
OUT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL ALLOW
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. INITIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION GIVEN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS IT WAY ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST POP (30%) IN SOUTHEAST
KS. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD
OF FRONT...GIVEN PACIFIC NATURE TO AIRMASS. NOT MUCH COOLING
INDICATED BEHIND FRONT EITHER ON GFS/ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  35  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  34  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  34  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  34  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         60  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  32  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       67  34  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  35  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  34  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  34  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  36  55  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-071415-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
710 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS RUSSELL COUNTY...WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

RANGELAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...EXTREME IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND VERY HIGH
IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE FIRE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME LARGE...AND QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC/ADK