Heavy Snow Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. INHERITED SNOW ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA AND PLAN TO STICK
WITH THIS. THE ONLY CHANGE THAT WILL BE MADE WILL BE TO MAKE THE
ADVISORY ONE SEGMENT RATHER THAN TWO. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SE
KS GETTING A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS AND AFTER LOOKING AT THE
LATEST TRENDS IT APPEARS CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO SEE
THE UPPER END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR EACH
MODEL RUN TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING WITH THE 06Z NAM/WRF. WITH THIS SAID WILL GO WITH 3-6
INCHES EVERYWHERE AND MENTION THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE LIKELY
ALONG AND NW OF A SLN TO HUT LINE.

AT THIS TIME AM ANTICIPATING SNOW TO START BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z OVER
SW CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WITH ALL OF AREA SEEING SNOW BY 21Z.
TAKING A LOOK AT A CROSS SECTION YIELDS THE MOST INTENSE SNOW
OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN OMEGA
CORRELATES NICELY WITH THE PRIME DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE OVER CENTRAL
KS. AT THIS SAME TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK SLANTWISE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN A
DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...STILL FEEL THERE
MAYBE A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING AROUND 00Z THAT MAY ALLOW
THE SNOW TO STICK AROUND LONGER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NW OF A SLN-HUT
LINE. THIS ALSO MATCHES WELL WITH HPCS THINKING OF WHERE THE HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAKE PLACE. WITH THIS SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF DAY SHIFT HAS TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MON:
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END SUNDAY AS VORT MAX LIFTS
QUICKLY NE. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER CHUNK OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF FLURRIES
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR SUN AND THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AS BOTH
GFS AND NAM/WRF KEEP THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. ACTUALLY WENT AHEAD
AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH
MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. KEPT THE
TREND OF GOING WITH TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES WITH ANTICIPATED
SNOW COVER.

TUE-WED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE AROUND 00Z THU WITH THE GFS
MORE PHASED AND AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. ECM KEEPS THE
PIECES OF ENERGY SEPARATE WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SW TX. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH THE HPC THINKING THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    33  26  32  20 / 100 100  30  10
HUTCHINSON      33  26  32  19 / 100 100  30  10
NEWTON          33  26  32  20 / 100 100  30  10
ELDORADO        33  26  32  21 / 100 100  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  26  32  21 / 100 100  20  10
RUSSELL         32  22  32  17 / 100 100  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  23  32  18 / 100 100  20  10
SALINA          33  25  31  19 / 100 100  30  10
MCPHERSON       33  25  32  19 / 100 100  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  27  32  21 / 100 100  20  10
CHANUTE         34  27  32  21 / 100 100  20  10
IOLA            34  27  32  20 / 100 100  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    34  27  32  21 / 100 100  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
528 AM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST SNOW ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FLURRIES ON SUNDAY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

LAWSON

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