Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
ICT...CNU...SLN AND HUT THROUGH 15Z. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE ARE NOT CURRENTLY PRODUCING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
CIGS AT SITES REPORTING STORMS HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH BELOW 3,000.
JUST LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE
3,000FT RANGE DURING THE DAY. STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD START TO IMPACT RSL...SLN AND POSSIBLY
ICT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. RSL...HUT AND SLN WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIAL FOR ROUND THREE OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING FOR
TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:
HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND NOW. ORIGINAL
DRYLINE HAS NOW BECOME VERY DIFFUSE AND IS STILL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF
SLN TO JUST NORTH OF HUT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A DEEP TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG TO OUR WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
EXTENDING FROM FROM NE CO THROUGH NW NEW MEXICO.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
TODAYS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT COMPARED TO THE
LAST THREE DAYS. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE NOW WORKED OVER THE
ATMOSPHERE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NOW HAVE KICKED OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...OUR
RICH MOISTURE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY OR TONIGHT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST AS
CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW A SLOW E/SE MOVEMENT. THIS BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 THIS
MORNING AND MAKE MAKE IT INTO THE FLINT HILLS.

DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL DEFINED AT ALL.
BUT UNLIKE YESTERDAY THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
STORMS WILL EITHER GO ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
OR ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE VERY LITTLE
CIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KS/WESTERN OK. SHEAR
PROFILES EAST OF THE INITIATING STORMS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH 35-40KTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR WITH SIGTOR PARAMETERS
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW.

ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING STORMS TO GET INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 21Z
AND MORE LIKELY AROUND 00Z. WITH FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TONIGHT...RAN WITH A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR CENTRAL KS THROUGH 12Z MON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS
HAS TO BE EXTENDED SINCE THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH
TUE.

MON-TUE:
BY 18Z MON UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST AND WILL BECOME
MORE POSITIVELY TITLED. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM EASTERN NE THROUGH WESTERN OK WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE STAYING
IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE AREA MON AND
MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
BOTH MON AND MON NIGHT. PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED FOR TUE
AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING TO OUR WEST AND
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STAYING AROUND AREA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO KEPT
PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR BOTH TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.
DAY TIME TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THESE SAME
PERIODS.

WED-SAT:
UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO EJECT OUT ON WED THROUGH THU.
BOTH ECM AND GFS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE SITUATED JUST WEST
OF FORECAST AREA BY 00Z THU WITH AREA UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP FOR BOTH WED AND WED NIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES GENERATED FROM THIS PESKY TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY LEAVE
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  64  76  61 /  70  60  40  60
HUTCHINSON      78  63  75  59 /  80  70  40  40
NEWTON          79  64  76  61 /  70  60  40  50
ELDORADO        80  66  77  62 /  60  60  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  66  78  62 /  50  60  50  60
RUSSELL         74  59  74  57 /  50  70  30  40
GREAT BEND      75  60  75  57 /  50  70  30  40
SALINA          76  63  75  58 /  70  70  30  30
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  59 /  80  70  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     82  68  80  65 /  40  40  50  50
CHANUTE         81  68  79  64 /  40  50  50  50
IOLA            81  67  78  64 /  40  40  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    82  68  80  64 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
938 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-071545-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
938 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LARGE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH AND TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE EVENING HOURS
APPROACH. WHILE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135...LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. PLEASE SEE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ANTICIPATED...FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE...AND ALSO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ091-061530-
HARPER-
945 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARPER COUNTY...

AT 941 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPRON...OR 31 MILES SOUTH
OF MEDICINE LODGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN HARPER COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE
READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

SCHRECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1018 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CORWIN                  37.08N 98.30W
05/06/2007                   HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1020 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     HAIL             1 E CORWIN              37.08N 98.28W
05/06/2007  E0.50 INCH       HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ELDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ069-070-093-094-098-061630-
BUTLER-CHAUTAUQUA-COWLEY-ELK-GREENWOOD-
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY...ELK AND GREENWOOD
COUNTIES...

AT 1023 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRENOLA...OR 27 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SEDAN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1034 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TORNADO          3 SE ATTICA             37.21N 98.19W
05/06/2007                   HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROPE TORNADO

&&

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1045 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E BROOKVILLE          38.77N 97.79W
05/06/2007                   SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPRING CREEK IS RISING BUT NOT YET OUT OF ITS BANKS AT
            THIS LOCATION. IT IS OUT OF ITS BANKS ABOUT 1 MILE
            NORTHEAST OF THIS LOCATION. 5 INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED
            OVERNIGHT.

&&

SCHRECK