Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION SECTION...

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU
TWO CONCERNS ARE LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION CHANCES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS AM APPEAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG 850 TROF AXIS. MAY NEED A
TEMPO TS GROUP AT CNU GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AFTERNOON DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN TO BE STRONG AND HARD TO RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. WILL UTILIZE CB CLOUD GROUPS FOR
NOW AT ALL SITES. LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTION CHANCES MAY INCREASE
SOME WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 AS UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES HIGH
PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN VCTS. LIGHT...VERY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD SCATTERED-BROKEN
STRATUS LAYERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AM. OCCASIONAL IFR
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THRU ABOUT 15Z.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007/

DISCUSSION...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AS CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD COVER
ON TEMPERATURES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE CHANNEL TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A
FEW STORMS ALSO RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT SEEING ANY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT CONSIDERING
THE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH 25% POPS
OR SO. TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE OF THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...A BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS PROGS 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF +14-16
DEGREES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH CERTAINLY WOULD GIVE AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL DO THE SAME WITH QPF. WITH THE QPF WE HAVE
FORECASTED...TOTAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME IS AROUND 2 INCHES FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WILL MENTION THAT AS
WELL...ESPCIALLY THE POSSIBILITY OF MICRO-BURSTS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
AREAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND SUSPECT THAT IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT AGAIN TONIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG LIKELY WITH
MOIST/SATURATED UPSLOPE FLOW. RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION LIKELY
DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. SUSPECT PESKY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT...WITH
MAXIMUM TOWARDS DAYBREAK PER CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  69  82  67 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      86  69  82  65 /  30  50  60  60
NEWTON          86  69  82  66 /  30  40  60  50
ELDORADO        85  68  83  66 /  30  40  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  69  83  67 /  30  40  60  50
RUSSELL         86  68  80  62 /  30  50  60  60
GREAT BEND      86  68  80  63 /  30  50  60  60
SALINA          87  69  81  66 /  30  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       86  69  81  65 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  69  85  66 /  30  30  50  40
CHANUTE         84  68  85  66 /  30  30  50  40
IOLA            84  68  85  67 /  40  30  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    84  69  85  66 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
450 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
450 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. ALSO THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT-
TIME HOURS. STRONG WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...COULD AGAIN CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 AM     FLOOD            HUMBOLDT                37.81N 95.44W
06/12/2007                   ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERAL FLOODED ROADS

&&

ELDER