Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS73 KICT 240217
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
913 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSC079-113-240615-
MCPHERSON KS-HARVEY KS-
913 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR
HARVEY AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES...

AT 908 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

AT 908 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT IN MCPHERSON COUNTY REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING IN MCPHERSON AND FLOODING IN INMAN. 

AT 820 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT IN HARVEY COUNTY REPORTED SECTIONS 
OF WEST DUTCH ROAD CLOSED.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
WICHITA.

LAT...LON 3817 9792 3817 9770 3791 9770 3791 9715
      3817 9715 3817 9736 3860 9737 3860 9792

$$

SCHRECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH GENERALLY EXPECT VFR OR MVFR TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU THE
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. KHUT AND KSLN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED MOST OF THE EVENING...WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPANDING TO AFFECT KRSL...KSLN AND
KICT BY MIDNIGHT.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

A VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM HAS SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK LATER THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING JUST
AS CONCERNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALREADY RECOVERED AND
RETURNED TO THE SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THE BEST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
ESPECIALLY FOR SURFACE FEATURES/FRONTAL MOVEMENT. THAT SAID...THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BIT MORE TRICKY AND WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT
ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...THOUGH THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TRAINING CONVECTIVE ECHOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THIS EVENING...WITH SUPERCELL STORMS THAT
WILL INITIATE FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS...WHICH COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE
EVENING...FUELED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND FOCUSED JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MIGRATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. EQUALLY CONCERNING
WILL BE THE HEAVY/TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH WILL REMAIN
ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
EXPANDED A BIT IN TIME AND SPACE...FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THOUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT BY LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP
ACROSS THE OZARKS...BEFORE THE FRONT DECAYS AND MOISTURE COMES
BACK NORTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH
THE MEDIUM RANGE DEPICTING A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER AND
FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

AVIATION...18Z TAFS RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU
ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WELL-DEFINED NE-SW
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT IN THIS REGION. SO CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS
WITH TSRA IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT CNU...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
WHEN THOSE TEMPOS WERE USED. MVFR CIGS QUITE PLAUSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY CONVECTION...AND ALSO ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  71  53  73 / 100  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      57  71  50  73 / 100  60  10  20
NEWTON          59  70  52  72 / 100  70  10  20
ELDORADO        61  71  53  72 /  70  80  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  72  55  73 /  80  70  20  20
RUSSELL         52  70  50  72 / 100  30  10  20
GREAT BEND      53  69  51  72 / 100  30  10  20
SALINA          57  71  51  73 / 100  60  10  20
MCPHERSON       57  71  51  73 / 100  60  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     64  73  56  73 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         63  72  54  73 /  40  70  20  20
IOLA            63  72  54  73 /  40  60  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  72  56  73 /  40  70  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
413 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-242215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
413 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
A GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON LINE AND WEST OF A MCPHERSON TO NEWTON
TO ANTHONY LINE. SUPER-CELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO 80 MPH...AND EVEN A STRONG TORNADO. THE
RISK WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY
WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE WATCH AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF FLOODING MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINS
WILL HAVE ENDED.

A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON THE RISK AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAINLY PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT...FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE YODER              37.98N 97.83W
05/23/2007  M4.68 INCH       RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER ALSO REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             6 SW MARION             38.29N 97.09W
05/23/2007  E1.00 INCH       MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BRW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ047-240030-
BARTON-
653 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON COUNTY...

AT 650 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ELLINWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CHANCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     FLOOD            HILLSBORO               38.35N 97.20W
05/23/2007                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED OVER ROADWAYS IN THE CITY.

&&

BRW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
716 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ051-067-068-240100-
HARVEY-MCPHERSON-RENO-
716 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARVEY...MCPHERSON AND RENO COUNTIES...

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUHLER...AND ANOTHER STRONG STORM JUST WEST
OF HESSTON...BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESES STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
718 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             LINCOLNVILLE            38.49N 96.96W
05/23/2007  E0.88 INCH       MARION             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW