Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1152 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATING ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WX AFTERNOON (SWOMCD
JUST ISSUED FOR POSSIBLE SVR WATCH)...SO ISSUING AFD A BIT EARLY.
FEW MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. SYNOPTICS
TRANSITION TO WEAK NW FLOW THIS WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT AGAIN SHOWING UP LATE THIS WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE FINAL AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
TONIGHT. VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS INITIAL CU/TCU FIELD
EXPLODING ACROSS N MS THROUGH MIDDLE AL IN CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
THETA-E/CAPE RIDGE. MU CAPES IN THIS ZONE ARE OVER 3000 J/KG. 8H-
3H MEAN FLOW SHOULD BRING N MS ACTIVITY INTO THE SHOALS 18-20Z.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN WEST CENTRAL-CENTRAL AL WILL
LIKELY MIGRATE DEVELOPMENT INTO TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY COOLER BUBBLE WHERE AIR IS MORE STABLE ACROSS NE AL
AND EASTERN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN SHOULD HOLD OFF DEVELOPMENT. THIS
IS ALSO WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
STRATUS/FG DEVELOPED. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST THREAT S AND W WHERE
HIGHER MUCAPE PRESENTS.

.LONGER TERM...
HAVE KEPT CHC POP IN THE SUNDAY (LOWERED FROM 40 TO 30
PCT)...PENDING FURTHER COORDINATION AND EVALUATION. I DO BELIEVE
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE OVER LOCAL AREA...WITH LOW
LEVEL NORTH FLOW BEGINNING TO ADVECT MORE STABLE CP AIR IN FROM
THE N. IN FACT...THE GFS FORECASTS DEW POINTS (RESULTING FROM
ADVECTION AND MIXING) DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN RATHER HOT TEMPS (M-U90S)...BUT WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW OPTING FOR MORE CONSISTENCY.  MCVS CONTINUE
TO BE GENERATED BY THE NAM...ONE OF WHICH MIGRATES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS PREFERRED LACKING THIS
FEATURE...BUT DOES CARRY LARGER SCALE 5H TROF AXIS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. IN EITHER CASE...AIRMASS SHOULD BE STABLE AT THIS
POINT. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ENLARGED
DIURNAL RANGES OVER GUIDANCE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  89  67  92 /  30  30  10  10
SHOALS        70  89  66  93 /  30  30  10  10
CULLMAN       69  89  67  91 /  30  30  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  69  87  65  90 /  30  30  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   69  88  67  91 /  30  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    69  88  66  91 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-310400-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BEING GUSTY OR DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WORK WEEK...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ALZ007-016-302015-
CULLMAN-MORGAN-
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN CULLMAN AND SOUTHERN
MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FALKVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTH
OF CULLMAN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  EVA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10

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