Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
226 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST U/A AND H20 VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH AN UPR LOW OVER TX/OK AND A SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MS
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NEWRD ACROSS MO/IL/IN.  AIR MASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
LOCALLY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB
TOWARD THE LOWER 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND DEWPTS HOLD THE UPR
60S/LWR 70S. DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN
PRIMARILY RELIANT OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LITTLE OTHER FORCING
AVAILABLE AND BROAD UPPER RIDGING STILL OVERHEAD. UNLESS LAST MINUTE
RADAR TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE...CURRENTLY PLANNING AN ISLTD POP
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CHANGES TO THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PREDOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO THE GULF...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST
COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A LESS
PRONOUNCED FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOT OVERLY SURPRISING FOR LATE
JUNE...WITH THE FROPA MORE LIKELY TO BE JUST A WIND SHIFT...PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SUBTLE DRYING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING SOME ADDED
FORCING TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL PCPN COVERAGE REMAINS IN QUESTION...WITH UPPER
RIDGING STILL A FACTOR AND THE FORCING/CONVERGENCE STILL QUITE
LIMITED. THUS...WILL HOLD POPS IN THE 30/40% RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

BY THE WEEKEND...FOCUS TURNS TOWARD SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT LIFTS
OUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW AND INTO THE MEAN NWERLY U/L FLOW JUST
TO THE EAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN HANDLING THIS ENERGY...WITH
THE LATEST NAM CLOSING THIS SYSTEM OFF NEAR OR JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THIS S/WV THROUGH PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING ON SUNDAY. IN EITHER CASE...THE ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
THIS IMPULSE ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
WILL ALLOW FOR SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS FOR SUNDAY...WILL JUST INTRODUCE AN ISLTD POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS S/WV WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE U/L NWERLY FLOW SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE ISLTD/SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...AND ALSO A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (LOW/MID 90S)
AS DRIER MID-LVL AIR MIXES DOWN DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  91  71  89 /  20  40  30  30
SHOALS        71  91  71  89 /  20  40  30  30
CULLMAN       70  91  71  89 /  20  40  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  71  90  70  88 /  20  40  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   71  91  71  89 /  20  40  30  30
FORT PAYNE    68  91  69  88 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

10

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
124 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

ALZ010-281900-
DE KALB-
124 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 119 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT
PAYNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FORT PAYNE.
  ADAMSBURG.
  FISHER CROSSROADS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
318 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

ALZ009-282045-
JACKSON-
318 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GURLEY...OR 12 MILES EAST OF
MOORES MILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  TRENTON.
  HOLLYTREE.
  PRINCETON.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

RSB

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