Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
258 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...LATEST U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS SHEARING UPR LVL TROUGH
ENTERING WRN ARK/SW MO. INITIAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TN VLY IS HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION FROM
NRN GA ACROSS MIDDLE TN. TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THIS WAVE...VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS WITH TEMPS AROUND 90F AND DEWPTS
IN THE LWR 70S. FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH...EJECTING UPR LVL ENERGY
COMBINING WITH HORIZONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/FRONTAL BNDRY ALONG/NORTH
OF THE COAST IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM ERN
TX TO SW AL...MOVING N/NE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...CONVERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL INTERACT
WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL ISOLD-SCT TSTM
ACTIVITY...ORIGINATING SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AND WEST OF I-65. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
MODELS FCST UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE MS RIVER BTWN 06-12Z
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITHIN INCREASINGLY UPR DIFFLUENT
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER UPWARD FORCING WILL
RESPOND AS AIR MASS SATURATES (PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.75-2.00 AFT 06Z).
INCREASING LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65.

THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS UPR TROUGH SHEARS ACROSS THE AREA. ASSUMING HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...H5/H7 TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH
SFC TROUGH FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...ENDING PRECIP...THOUGH MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-65. AT THIS TIME...ITS DIFFICULT TO GET A GAGE ON PRECIP
AMOUNTS. BUT GENERAL ESTIMATES OF 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR MOST AREAS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WILL BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

KEEP IN MIND...DESPITE THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PRECIP...THESE
AMOUNTS WILL ONLY PROVIDE SHORT TERM RELIEF TO THE HISTORIC DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS EVENT...THE OVERALL DROUGHT STATUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...A NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BRING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK TO AROUND 90F DURING THE DAY...BUT LOW HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE AN UPR TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VLY REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS WILL
BRING FOR THE LOCAL AREA IS SOME CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFT BACK AROUND
TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE DOOR THEN OPENS FOR A STRONG AND
PRONOUNCED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. SHOULD THIS PATTERN UNFOLD...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE
100F DEG MARK. NADLER.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  85  68  90 /  30  70  30  10
SHOALS        72  84  67  91 /  30  70  20  10
CULLMAN       70  83  68  89 /  30  70  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  70  82  66  87 /  30  70  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   71  83  70  90 /  30  70  30  20
FORT PAYNE    68  85  68  87 /  30  70  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

DJN.83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-191000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE AIR AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...WHILE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL
STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING...AND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT
WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

BCC

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