Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.UPDATE...
A PERSISTENT SWERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AS THE AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST AND A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN
IL/MO THROUGH NORTHERN AR. A LOOK AT 12Z RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BL MOISTURE A BIT DEEPER THIS MORNING...AS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...WITH DEWPTS NOW IN THE LWR 70S AREAWIDE. SHOWERS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE
HIGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL EXIST AS PEAK HEATING
APPROACHES. MEANWHILE...QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO FEED OFF
THIS ENVIRONMENT UPSTREAM AS IT SHIFTS E-SE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MO/NORTHEAST AR AND INTO NORTHWEST TN.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN EXPANSION OF
THE PCPN COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS MLCAPE VALUES APPROACH
3000 J/KG AND THE ENVIRONMENT OVERCOMES A WEAKER MID LEVEL CAP.
THE LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAY INITIALLY IMPEDE THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CELLULAR INTO THE AFTN PROVIDING MORE POCKETS OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING TO HELP FOCUS THE PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE LACK
OF A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AROUND THE MELTING LAYER PREVENTS THE
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL FROM BEING COMPLETELY IDEAL...CANNOT IGNORE
THE MODERATE/HIGH INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL WINDEX VALUES FOR
TODAY. THUS EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISLTD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS

IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM MCS BECOMES A FOCUS BY
EARLY AFTN...AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS TN AND TOWARD THE TN/AL STATE
LINE. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT/WIND FIELDS...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AS THE
OUTFLOW/COLD POOL FEEDS OFF THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THUS...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HEIGHTEN THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL
ADJUST THE POPS UPWARD TO AT LEAST A HIGH CHANCE TODAY...AND MAY
EVEN NEED TO GO LIKELY BUT WILL MONITOR. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
IN THE UPR 70S/LWR 80S DESPITE THE BKN CLOUD DECK...SO HIGHS NR
90/LWR 90S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE.

10
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TONIGHT...DECREASING TREND IN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AS SFC
HEATING WANES. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
AREA BUT FALL APART BY THIS EVENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL LOW LVL FORCING TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION TONIGHT. STORMS WILL FEED OFF LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE AIRMASS STABILIZES
OVERNIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER. FOR
AREAS THAT ARE FORTUNATE TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...PATCHY
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/SFC HEATING AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND
A DEEP DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT. THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS /AS THE WINDEX NEARS 60KTS/. BY SATURDAY EVENING...DRIER AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL BECOME THE RULE
THROUGH MONDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL A LOT MORE
COMFORTABLE AS DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...
THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPR LVL ENERGY TRAVERSES THE NRN TIER STATES.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE UPR HIGH WILL REMAIN FIRM ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF PRECIP...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CLIMATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOST OF NORTH AL COUNTIES
ARE NOW IN AN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CATEGORY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
AT LEAST A ONCE-IN-FIFTY YEAR DROUGHT...AND A FIRST FOR THIS AREA
SINCE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATIONS BEGAN. OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS AT
HUNTSVILLE SHOW PRECIPITATION 17.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR...AND NEARLY 50 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
THE START OF 2005.

FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT SITUATION AND
ITS LOCAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
/HUNESFHUN/. NADLER.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-090300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING...INCREASING
MOISTURE...AND AN APPROACHING FRONT CREATE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...
CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ALL
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...WHEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESUME AFTER SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

STORM REPORTS FROM EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER FORMAL ACTIVATION OF
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ALZ001-082000-
LAUDERDALE-
227 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAUDERDALE COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALNUT GROVE...OR 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF IUKA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  THREET.
  OAKLAND.
  CLOVERDALE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KTW

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